AFL 2021

[Zzzptm]

OK, so it's like a double wildcard system. Top four teams need two losses to get knocked out, 5th-8th place teams need one loss to get knocked out.

[Jack the Stripper]

Yeah sorta. Basically the top 4 get a double chance but only the 2 losers in the first week. Winners will go straight through to a preliminary final and have a week off where it will be knockout from there.

The advantages of finishing top four is that you get the opportunity to only have to win 2 games to get through to the GF with a weeks rest inbetween whilst a loss in the first week gives you a second chance.

[Zzzptm]

I'm checking out a few predictions and I've heard some tout Melbourne all the way and others saying that the Cats have a chance... without upsets, it could well be a Dees-Cats or Power-Cats final. But some questions come up:

1. Are the Cats almost in as bad a state as the Bulldogs? Bulldogs lost last 3 games, Cats lost last 2 of 3.

2. Sure, the Cats allowed the Dees to scrape back a win, but aren't the Dees showing vulnerability in getting into that hole in the first place? Same question for Power, which got far behind the Bulldogs and also had to dig their way out.

3. Will the more defensive teams in the playoffs have an answer for Brisbane's high scoring ways?

4. How much of a chance does Essendon have to pull off an upset on the Bulldogs?

[Jack the Stripper]

1. I think Geelongs drop off has coincided with losing Tom Stewart. He plays such an important role in Geelongs defensive structure and is a great intercept mark and distributer of the football and is irreplaceable. Geelong have been moving the ball even more slower and methodical in recent weeks which I think is protect their back six since Stewart is missing. If they turn it over the go slow approach gives time for their defence to set up. Stewart is such a great reader of the play and contested interceptor mark in defence. Huge loss.

On a positive note though. The Cats are set to regain gun midfielder Mitch Duncan after missing the last 10 weeks with a PCL.

2. The Dees have been the most consistent team all season. Besides 15 minutes of that 2nd quarter when Geelong dominated centre clearances and were able to capitalise on the scoreboard the Dees dominated all the major stats in the game and have in most games this season. It just feels like their time. The last time they finished on top in the regular season in 1964 they won the premiership. You know what else happened that year? The Tokyo Olympics 

3. History shows, especially in the last 20 years that defence wins premierships. But you still need to have attacking flare with a couple of big forwards capable of kicking goals. Geelong has both, so does Melbourne. Port has a great forward setup but are susceptible in defence, same as Brisbane and the Dogs.

4. Essendon is a big chance to beat the Dogs and will have confidence after beating them only a couple of weeks ago. The Bombers dominated the Bulldogs midfield that day which has been the dogs strength all season but has really fallen away in the later part of the season. They’re really missing their #1 ruckman in Stefan Martin atm, but he might be back for this game. If the Bulldogs find their game they’ll win. Essendon haven’t won a final since 2004. Maybe they’re satisfied on just being there where’s the Dogs have bigger aspirations.

The Bulldogs still remain the only team to win the premiership from outside the top 4 when they won it from 7th in 2016. Can they do it again? Big ask!

[Zzzptm]

It has seemed like the Dees' year for most of the year, with flashes from Geelong, Port A, Brisbane, and Bulldogs along the way. Of the rest of the top 4, I have seen the Cats most mentioned as a team capable of winning the Premiership. I have to stay hopeful for their chances...

[Zzzptm]

Time to pick 'em for the weekend...

Geelong over Port Adelaide GO CATS GO!

Sydney over GWS Giants, probably in a close game

Melbourne over Brisbane

Essendon edges the Bulldogs, I like the possibility of this upset.

[Jack the Stripper]

Going with your picks Z except I’m going the Bulldogs to beat the Bombers.

Tom Stewart and Tom Hawkins were picked in the prestigious All Australian team of 2021 tonight



https://www.afl.com.au/news/670638/all-australian-team-dees-dominate-11-new-faces-first-time-captain

[Zzzptm]

Good to hear Stewart and Hawkins got the picks, they're great players to watch.

No surprise to see a lot of other names in there, having learned them from watching the highlights. Bontempelli, Greene, Petracca, Oliver, MacRae, Gawn, Merrett... I'm a little surprised that Cameron from Brisbane didn't make the cut, he's been pretty clutch for the Lions all year.

[Jack the Stripper]

I'm a little surprised that Cameron from Brisbane didn't make the cut, he's been pretty clutch for the Lions all year.

He had a slowish start to the season which probably cost him but should’ve been in ahead of Papley.

A lot of players were stiff to miss out but it’s like, who do you take out? It’s always such a hard task picking the AA.

Match day today. It’s good the boys won’t be forced to wait around in cricket nets for 6hrs prior to the game but they’re still under pretty strict quarantine conditions.

Hawkins plays his 300th game for the Club tonight and Captain Selwood will equal the games record for Geelong with 332. He’ll also move into 2nd place on the all time VFL/AFL for most finals games played with 36.

Go Cats!

[Jack the Stripper]

Port totally disarmed our game while being able to find free players and apply enormous pressure to us all night. Our defence continuously fumbled, dropped marks and turned it over. It was as disappointing as I’ve seen Geelong play in a quite a long time.

Since Geelong won the 2011 premiership their record is 1/9 in the first week of finals.

[Zzzptm]

Well, Aliir showed that his pick for the AA team is no accident. Brilliant work, there. And while Geelong had some terrible accuracy problems, they also had even worse luck getting into enemy territory uncontested. Port Adelaide found a way, multiple times: when a highlights reel shows a guy all alone in front of the goalposts, it means the defense didn't show up. Geelong's shots were taken in traffic, Port got to do plenty of kicks with little or no Cats defense in the way.

Still gonna cheer for them, come on and beat (ELIMINATION FINAL WINNER) next week!

[Jack the Stripper]

So Geelong will meet GWS in a cut throat semi final after they beat Sydney by 1 point in a pulsating game. They got out to 5 goal lead in the 3rd qtr before Sydney clawed their way back and should’ve won in the end but they missed heaps of shots in the last quarter as GWS were out on their feet.

Melbourne beat Brisbane in the other game by 33 points just now as I’m typing meaning Brisbane will play the winner of tomorrow’s game between the dogs and the Bombers in the other cut throat semi final next week.

[Zzzptm]

Cats will be looking to win this time vs GWS, I think they can do it. Brisbane should be able to do in either the Bulldogs or the Bombers, I would think.

[Jack the Stripper]

Well the Cats did what they usually do after a Qualifying final loss and that’s bounce back with a good win. Looked in control for most of the game besides a little scare in the last qtr when GWS kicked 4 goals in the the first 5 minutes but the Cats were able to steady and run out winners by 35 points. Next week will be their 11th preliminary final appearance in the last 15 years which is a mighty achievement in itself but they’re gonna have to be at their very best to beat Melbourne next week.

[Zzzptm]

Absolutely. And if the Bulldogs win, they'll STILL have to be at their very best! But I agree, this should come down to Dees v Cats.