AFL 2021

[Zzzptm]

So glad Dangerfield is back, along with Cameron. That will make a real difference, for sure. And yes, St. Kilda is down but not out - can't count on an easy win with them.

With the Richmond loss to the Giants, it puts them deeper into the hole. The maths needed to get them into the top 8 just got that much more complicated in terms of who needs to win/lose this week and next for them to still hit the #8 slot. That one tie the Giants had is their insurance, as the worst record they can have is 10-11-1, and that puts them just ahead of any 10-12 team. An Essendon win this week all but seals Richmond's fate, as it'll be up to Essendon/WC/GWS for the 7 and 8 slots. If Freo gets WC, then they're in the mix. St. Kilda beating Geelong (No! Please no!) would keep them in the mix, but their loss to Geelong puts them on the same shelf as Richmond.

And yes, there's more than one person on this board with a touch of the schadenfreude for ol' Richmond.

[Jack the Stripper]

I think Essendon will grab that final spot. Can’t see WC beating Brisbane in the last rd.

In very bad news for Geelong, Tom Stewart is out of today’s game amid fears he has suffered a serious season ending foot injury which happened at training on Thursday. Arguably our most important player along with Hawkins.

[Zzzptm]

That's some hard news to bear.

[Jack the Stripper]

Dangerfield is an absolute beast. Dragged his team over the line today with his brute force style of play. A nice cameo performance from Cameron as well kicking 4 goals on his return. But the news just gets worse for Geelong with Hawkins expected to get cited for a tackle that saw his opponent get subbed out with concussion. It’s very line ball though, wasn’t a sling or a dumping style tackle but a similar tackle on Geelongs Mitch Duncan earlier in the season saw the tackler get suspended for 2 weeks but then subsequently beat the charge at the tribunal and got off.

Judge for yourself
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/geelong-cats/afl-2021-tom-hawkins-dangerous-tackle-on-darragh-joyce-geelong-vs-st-kilda-video-incident-match-review-news/news-story/16452d3806dec072ea07f11b448e7d5d

[Zzzptm]

Just catching up now... Hawthorn ought to be a top team next year, they dominated the Bulldogs. Wow.

Physical West Coast Derby - Freo got the job done, but WC didn't look as bad as before. Probably fire in their bellies for the grudge match.

Cats played very well after the 1st Quarter... Hawkins' tackle was rough, but not intentional and could have just as easily not ended that way. Nothing at all like the sucker punch that one WC player done on the Freo guy.

Hoping for the Cats to hold it all together, they can beat the Demons on their way into the finals!

[Jack the Stripper]

Yeah Hawkins was an accident and thankfully the MRO saw it that way as well, much to a lot of peoples surprise and annoyance I must say.

So much to play out in this last round with changes of ladder positions. If Geelong lose they need Port to lose to avoid playing them in Adelaide in a Qualifying final in front of a parochial home crowd and all the bullshit quarantining protocols that come with it. At least the Bulldogs and Port play each other the night before so Geelong will at least know beforehand what they need to do. If Port lose Geelong may decide to rest a bunch of players, same might Melbourne.

[Zzzptm]

What I'd love to see in the last week is Hawthorn beating Richmond and WC beating Brisbane. I think I'm only going to get one of those, and it ain't Brisbane losing. There's a clear path for them to make the top 4 with a Port win over the Bulldogs... and I don't think the Bulldogs could beat Port, they're reeling after these last 2 weeks.

[Zzzptm]

Week 23 picks...

Power beats Bulldogs
Hawks beat Tigers
Swans beat Suns
Lions beat Eagles
Cats beat Demons - match of the week, without question
Giants beat Blues
Saints beat Dockers
Bombers beat Magpies
Crows vs Kangaroos... why not go out crazy and have the 'Roos win this one?

[Jack the Stripper]

I’m picking the same as you Z but I’ll pick the Bulldogs to best Port. Port have really struggled against top 4 teams this season and I don’t think this will be any different. Port like to press up really high and lock it in their forward half, the better teams find a way to get through their press, and once they do they usually score hence Ports poor record against really good teams.

I actually think that’s the match of the round given the stakes. If Port wins they can nab a home final. If dogs lose they can drop out of th top 4. If Port do win though, that cats v dogs game becomes huge.

[Jack the Stripper]

So Port got the win by 2 points over the dogs after being down most of the night.

So basically, the winner of Geelong and Melbourne tomorrow will take top spot and will most likely play Brisbane on a neutral ground in the first week of finals given the AFL have ruled out playing any games in Victoria because they’d rather play in front of crowds.

The loser of Geelong Melbourne will have to travel to Adelaide and play Port in front of a rabid home crowd. Not an ideal outcome for Geelong or Melbourne either way.

I liken Port fans to Philadelphia Eagles fans Z

[Zzzptm]

Just watched the Port game, wow... behind all the way until the very end. But it was clearly tipping in their direction when they had that massive run-up in the 3rd Quarter.

So Adelaide is Australia's Philly? Good to know!

[Zzzptm]

What a game Geelong-Melbourne just played. All down to that one captain's kick at the end. Could have easily gone another way, with some different breaks in those closing minutes.

[Jack the Stripper]

The blew it Z. The gave up a 44 point lead and totally capitulated in the last qtr, especially in the final 40 seconds. Everything that could go wrong did. Losing doesn’t worry me, but losing in such a manner does. Concerns me the effect it could have on morale and confidence going into next week.

I fear they could be damaged goods now.

[Zzzptm]

So how do the finals games play out? I see the top four paired off with each other and the bottom four in their group.

[Jack the Stripper]

So these are the matchups of week 1

FRIDAY, AUGUST 27

Second qualifying final
2 Port Adelaide v 3 Geelong at Adelaide Oval, 7.50pm

SATURDAY, AUGUST 28

Second elimination final
6 Sydney v 7 GWS Giants at University of Tasmania Stadium, 3.20pm

First qualifying final
1 Melbourne v 4 Brisbane at Adelaide Oval, 7.30pm

SUNDAY, AUGUST 29

First elimination final
5 Western Bulldogs v 8 Essendon at University of Tasmania Stadium, 3.20pm

This is how it plays out.