Russia vs Ukraine critical assessment

[Zzzptm]

In latest news, Ukraine has begun counteroffensives and has regained ground outside Kyiv and is making progress towards Mykolaiv and Kherson.

Anatoly Chubais, one of Putin's ministers, has resigned his post and left Russia.

Russia's attack on Odessa hasn't materialized as expected - supply issues most likely hampering the move.

[Zzzptm]

On the speculative side of things, Kremlin watchers are noting that Russia's Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, who both used to have frequent appearances in the media, have not been seen publicly since 11 March. The two explanations considered are that 1) War not going so good, these guys not as popular, keep them out of sight for now, but they'll be back, or; 2) War not going so good, they're in deep trouble like the FSB guys that fudged their intel, they're not returning to the public sphere.

[Vyn]

Relatedly, recent articles from several news outlets indicate that Finland is leaning towards joining NATO.

I can hardly wait until they do; I'll finally be able to show Charger the secret handshake!

[Zzzptm]

That would mean we could also legally send him antitank missiles, am I right?

[Charger]

Things are looking like that yes.

From a defensive point of view NATO is a great thing...but we are a poor country with a shit load of debt already...adding the yearly costs of joining NATO is bit scary...

That being said though I would have liked if we'd joined a long long time ago...when we could have done so under our own terms.

And yes if you feel like you'd like to send me a Javelin or two I wouldn't turn them down.

[Zzzptm]

I'll see what the sales on eBay look like.

Hmm... looks like most of what is available is in the "scale model" category... disappointing...

[Charger]

Well shit...I have gnarly feeling those won't work...even against russian tanks...

[Zzzptm]

Indeed. Unless the Russians have depleted their normal-sized tank forces and are also using scale models.

[Typhon]

Just read this today.

"Finland is just weeks away from submitting an application to join NATO despite Russian warnings that it would secure ‘the destruction of their country’, a former Prime Minister of the country said today.

The Nordic country, which has a long border with Russia and was invaded by the Red Army in 1939, has never been a member of the Cold War defense alliance, preferring instead to organize its own protection.

But since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, opinion polls commissioned by Finnish media outlets have shown a swift U-turn in public opinion with the majority now favoring joining."

[Zzzptm]

And Finnish membership could spur Sweden into joining in, as well: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/will-finland-and-sweden-join-nato-now/

[Charger]

Not fully accurate. Finland is contemplating applying for a membership but nothing has been set in motion yet and there has been no word of anything official.

But I am confident we will indeed apply in the next few months but nothing is official yet....sadly our current government is known for dragging their little feet where ever they go.

[Vyn]

November 12th, 2022: Grandmother kneels before grandson who's been fighting for Kherson liberation: (it does have sound, but just the unabashed wailing of a woman overcome with relief. Holy shit.)

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1591477593202692096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[Zzzptm]

I truly hope that the Russian collapse in Ukraine shows to world leaders the futility of offensive war. All that the Russians accomplished was death, destruction, disruption of the global economy, and misery. Such a wretched thing Putin ordered.