Russia vs Ukraine critical assessment

[Jack the Stripper]

Well I don’t really know what to say about about what’s happening in Ukraine right now except to say I wish the people of Ukraine all the best in defending their country’s sovereignty and freedoms. The response from Nato and the West has been meek to say the least. Sanctions will not stop Putin overthrowing the Ukrainian government and achieving his goal of restoring Russian power in Ukraine. Sad and troubling times.

[Charger]

Yeah the Ukraine situation is horrid...

It took me bit off guard actually. I was expecting Russia to just take over the separatist areas and be done with it...never expected a full on assault.

But Putin has sensed the weakness of the west and especially in Biden and acted on it. And you can see Biden not knowing what the hell is going on and struggling to get anything done...sadly kind of the same thing is happening in the EU though....Seems that sporting events have taken a bigger role that politicians in sanctioning Russia!

This is all in all very troubling...the biggest thing is IF Russia gets control of Ukraine quickly and with minimal losses that might encourage them to try it again somewhere else...and sadly well...Finland is a possibility.
We so dropped the ball all those years ago by not joining NATO and soon we might pay the price for that leftist pro-Russia stupidity...

Attack here is unlikely but once Russia gets going who the hell knows where they'll end it...

The good old Mutually Assured Destruction isn't working anymore...mainly because the west has gotten weak...and Russia knows it too.

Scary times we're living in now....scary times.

[Typhon]

I'd call it sad or disgusting times:

Germany has made good on its laughable vow to Ukraine to send 5,000 helmets to help them fight the Russians two days into the conflict, but there’s a catch… adding insult to injury, the Eastern European country will have to actually pick up the helmets so German truck drivers won’t be at risk.

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, called the offer from the Germans’ a joke and asked if they would be sending pillows next. Ukraine is in a full-scale war with Russia, but unlike the United States and other allies, Germany refused to send arms or “lethal aid” to the country so it can actually defend itself. Ukraine has called it a “betrayal of friends.”

[Vyn]

Russia will, at some point, take over Ukraine.

And over time Russia will continue to poke and prod and take whatever it thinks it can take. They've already threatened Sweden and Finland.

It's a terrible situation. That's easy for me to say sitting in my home far removed from it. But I can't think of any more appropriate term than terrible. I'm not a diplomat, or a foreign policy specialist, or a military strategist. I wish this kind of thing would just stop, but I know it won't.

[Zzzptm]

The action in Ukraine may get Sweden and Finland to fast-track their NATO applications, which I do believe are in the works.

As for the Ukraine proper, I was surprised to see Russians going for Odessa, Kyiv, and Zaporozhe. Those are deep into the parts of Ukraine that are anything *but* Russian-speaking. Driving tanks over that ground and actually getting the people to get in line and behave will prove to be two different things. Unless this is some kind of shakedown that makes Ukraine willing to let sovereign parts slough off in the east and south in exchange for a full withdrawal, this looks a lot like overreaching. And while the price of oil is going up, all it takes is for the USA to drop the Venezuela embargo to make it come right back down again. That, or give a concession to Saudi Arabia (likely in terms of influence in Yemen or Bahrain) and they'll step up production. They like a high oil price, but they also know that what benefits Russia in terms of prices also benefits their regional arch-rivals, Iran. So that's a possibility.

And, if the Russian economy hits a hard patch and is not supported by a high oil price, it's not going to be a fun place to be the boss of, that's for sure. If Putin can't keep handing out enough goodies to pacify everyone, he's vulnerable to an internal power struggle.

Ukraine itself was not part of NATO, so it exists outside that framework. And while NATO has been decried as being weak in this conflict, it needs to be observed that it's also not part of it. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania *are* in NATO, and they're very glad for that. Russian armored vehicles are currently not anywhere near Tallinn, Riga, or Kaunas.

As for responses... they are happening. The Russian Armed Services webpage had an Error 418 page for a while... Error 418 is a joke error page, so it's something of a public hack. While it can't be positively attributed, it does let us know that other things we can't see are being done by people that are no friends of Putin's. The cyberwar aspect of the conflict between the USA and Russia is definitely ratcheting up.

[Typhon]

Just heard US sending $350 million in military assistance to Ukraine and NATO will be providing weapons.  This could up tic the cost of Russia taking Ukraine in more ways than one.

And while the price of oil is going up, all it takes is for the USA to drop the Venezuela embargo to make it come right back down again. That, or give a concession to Saudi Arabia

Or, Biden could just reverse all the policies he put in place the first month he was in office.  Reopen pipelines, remove drilling restrictions and so forth.  We don't need oil brought in from other countries.  There is enough here to sustain ourselves, like we were doing just a couple of years ago.

[Vyn]

This could up tic the cost of Russia taking Ukraine in more ways than one.

Russia may already be feeling it. Interesting article from IDNES about the current situation in Ukraine:

https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/zahranicni/prezident-vladimir-putin-podekoval-armade-televize-projev.A220227_102640_zahranicni_vank

Of course it's in Czech, but Google Translate works if you're determined to read it. What it boils down to is that Putin just broadcast a speech thanking the soldiers for their service in helping protect Donbas (that is how Putin is framing it). Then stating he is going on special alert with his nuclear weapons because "the West" is illegally sanctioning them and being aggressive.

It goes on to say that there are no Russian soldiers in Kiev, that Ukraine still holds Kharkov, and that there is a peace delegation from Russia wanting to negotiate with Ukraine.

The delegation is in Minsk, but Ukraine says it won't go there because Russia is attacking them FROM Belarus.

Haven't caught any of this info yet on other news stations.

Seems Ukraine is hanging in there. More power to them!

[KiloDeltaCharlie]

^^^
UK news oulets like the BBC have been reporting that.

[Vyn]

^^^
UK news oulets like the BBC have been reporting that.

Good, that's a bit more confirmation for sure! I'm always wary of -any- news outlet, but the more that report a story, the more credibility it has. Regarding Russia, Czech news is especially tricky because they HATE Russia and always try to paint them in a bad light.

[Charger]

So much conflicting information coming it's almost impossible to say what is really going on over there.

Ukraine is killing thousands of russians, russians are marching on without any casualities and so on and so on...the truth lies somewhere in between I'd say...both sides have probably suffered losses and ofcourse losses that are about as futile as losses can ever be.

And now ofcourse Putin is threating the use of Nukes...oh yeah...that'll work out well.

[Zzzptm]

I've got some sources of information that collect large amounts of news and then curate it. The announcement from Putin that his nuclear forces are on high alert did happen. We have to assume now that they are at readiness levels on par with the Cold War: 15-20 minute trigger for at least 1/3rd of the total strategic forces.

Also of note are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed rail lines. Russian supply is heavily dependent on rails, so in a few days, they could be hitting limits of their advances as they have to repair their lines. Moreover, the Russians have not yet gotten air superiority, and that is a telling factor on Russian air combat performance vis a vis Ukraine's Western-supplied air defenses, including fighter jets, missile systems, and drone systems.

Also of note are two major oligarchs, the head of Russia's aluminum producers and the head of Alfa-bank, making public statements that "peace is very important" - a clear signal to Putin that he does not have unquestioned backing from the oligarchs.

[Zzzptm]

Woke up to read that the Russian Stock Market is closed today due to the financial collapse that seems to have immediately seized up their economy. The ruble is bottomed out and the Russian central bank is hiking the interest rate there from 9.5% to 20%.

When I went to Russia about 10 years ago, it was around 8.5 rubles to the dollar, something like that. Checked today and it's 120 to the dollar. Fourteen-fold price increases on imported goods is brutal. Stocks may be jumpy and volatile on this side of the Dnieper, but it's definitely no doubling of interest rates and collapse of the local currency's parity with foreign currencies. Also, with the Russian banks locked out of SWIFT for the most part, that country is going to hit a credit freeze very soon if not already. That means lines of credit for businesses are shutting down and they can't secure extension loans to keep afloat. Think the collapse of 2008, but with the central bank unable to create effective policies to re-stabilize the economy.

China's in no hurry to take back Taiwan. I don't think that they want to go the military route, even though talking about it always goes down well at home. But seeing the immediacy and severity of the impact in Russia, if I was in the Chinese Politburo, I'd be shaking my head about any kind of military operation. For anyone that would argue the point, I'd bring up the raw material imports from Australia that would be halted, along with the entire export-driven sector of the economy that would shut down. Then I'd say the phrase, "Mao had many good ideas, but Deng was right." Translated, that means reliance on central direction of the economy is a mistake: China has to be integrated in the world economy to grow and prosper.

I'm guessing Putin decided to attack Ukraine because he started to believe his own propaganda.

[Charger]

The ruble did jump back a bit I think after that... 95.5 to the dollar was the number I think.

They closed the stock market for the whole week. But the damage was done...and I doubt it'll magically start with a massive raise next week either...unless ofcourse Russia pulls off a massive win and take over Ukraine before that...which I tend to doubt a bit.


On another note there's enough of a topic for discussion in a seperate thread so I'll be moving this to Billy's Corner.

[Zzzptm]

I think the economic sanctions continue full force until the Russians pull back to the status quo antebellum lines, and maybe even get out of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, to boot. And, yes, with their logistics issues and the current mud season, the Russian advance is not going to be fast-moving.

[Typhon]

I agree with the thoughts that the economic problems this invasion is causing Russia are paramount.  Now add to that a bit of news I just saw about one of the major oil companies.

Big Oil corporation Shell announced Monday that it would leave its partnership and ventures with Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom.  Shell will divest from its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, its 50% stake in the Salym Petroleum Development and its 50% stake in the Gydan energy exploration venture, the corporation announced Monday. The London-based fossil fuel company said it would pull out of its Russian ventures in light of the country’s military invasion and aggression in Ukraine.

If other major oil companies follow along, Putin may have economically ruined his country for at least the next decade.