Russia vs Ukraine critical assessment

[Zzzptm]

If other major oil companies follow along, Putin may have economically ruined his country for at least the next decade.

Decade, at least. There are also reports of Russian units surrendering without a fight. Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/russia-ukraine-conflict-kyiv-us-b2025988.html

Russia’s assault on Kyiv has “stalled” with some units “surrendering without a fight” to Ukrainian troops, according to a senior US defence official.

The official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity on Tuesday, said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces have come up against several logistical issues as they try to take control of the Ukrainian capital.

Some Russian forces are facing shortages of food and fuel while they are also being challenged by a lack of experience among some troops who never knew they were being sent to combat, the official said.

As a result, the advance on the capital has basically stalled and remains “where it was yesterday” with Mr Putin now said to be “regrouping and rethinking” Russia’s attack.

“You’ve seen it on the ground, where units are surrendering, sometimes without a fight,” the official said.

“There has been in the last six days evidence of a certain risk averse behavior by the Russian military,” the official said, according to CNN.

“You’ve seen it on the ground, where units are surrendering, sometimes without a fight.

“And they’ve got, a lot of these soldiers are conscripts, never been in combat before, some of whom we believe weren’t even told they were going to be in combat. So we’re just seeing evidence of a bit of risk aversion.”

I've heard other reports from other sources (Ukrainians posting on Facebook) that they've encountered Russian soldiers who were lost and hungry and who had ditched their weapons. It all reads very much like reports from the Eastern Front in WW1. Don't know how widespread such events are, but there does seem to be a loss of discipline in the Russian forces that slows down their advance.

[Typhon]

^^^^^^
Hope this information is accurate, but you never know for sure these days.

[Vyn]

Sberbank (a Russian bank) has branches in the Czech Republic. They ran out of money, so the Czech Gov. revoked their licenses to conduct business there. A billion in assets gone in about three days, due to companies and individuals transferring everything out of it. Anybody who still had money in that bank, now has zero money.

[Zzzptm]

^^^^^^
Hope this information is accurate, but you never know for sure these days.

I hope so as well, and yes, this is part of the fog of war.

Sberbank (a Russian bank) has branches in the Czech Republic. They ran out of money, so the Czech Gov. revoked their licenses to conduct business there. A billion in assets gone in about three days, due to companies and individuals transferring everything out of it. Anybody who still had money in that bank, now has zero money.

When there's going to be a panic, the first one to panic, wins.

[Jack the Stripper]

Ian Gillan on Russia's war against Ukraine:

"If speaking out means we shall never see our Russian friends again, then that is a big sacrifice, but nothing compared with never again seeing our Ukrainian friends who are being killed to satisfy the psychopathic ambitions of the Russian leader. I would like to see Russians on the streets in their millions, to show their disgust at the Ukrainian invasion, and I’d like to dream that very quickly, Russia can find some modern leadership that will bring them back into the world as friends. We have so much in common."

[Vyn]

"...I’d like to dream that very quickly, Russia can find some modern leadership that will bring them back into the world as friends."

A dream I share with Mr. Gillan. I'm pretty well confident that it is just a dream, though.

Here's a couple of messages I caught from a Wall Street Journal article about the Russian invasion of Ukraine:

Person A: "It is a bloody nightmare."

Person B: "Actually, it is bloody reality."

[Zzzptm]

Gillan put things very, very well there.

[Jack the Stripper]

Time for NATO to get involved. Putin will stop at nothing to take over Ukraine and cause mass civilian casualties and displace millions of Ukrainians in the process. Which country will be next to get invaded if NATO stands by and does nothing? How the world is just sitting back and watching is beyond me. Time is now to teach Putin a very hard lesson.

[Charger]

The problem that NATO is facing is the fact that Russia is a nuclear power...and so far Russia has done nothing to directly attack against NATO...so IF NATO gets involved it would be an act of war against Russia and they would be in their right to then fight back...and as poorly as things are going for them in Ukraine right now the fear ofcourse is that Putin would go to extremes and actually use a nuke...it is a strong possiblity.

If NATO would get involved it would most likely lead to World War 3...and Russia would be in the losing end of that battle no doubt unless they'd get support from China which I think is unlikely...so they'd go nuclear without a doubt. That way Putin can atleast safe some face and go out with a glorious bang.

I think that's the reasoning behind NATO not getting involved...and honestly I see the logic and understand it perfectly. So far few hundred Ukrainian civilians have died in the war...if it were to escalate we could be talking about hundreds of thousands maybe millions...and no one wants that.

[Jack the Stripper]

I understand why NATO won’t yet get involved but where does it stop and at what point is enough enough? It seems if you’re a big powerful country with a big powerful army, just arm yourself with nukes and invade any smaller country you want and threaten to use your nukes if anyone else gets involved.

[Charger]

Yeah....that's problematic to say the least...when does it become worth risking world war 3 and potential nuclear holocaust?

Right now I'm thinking that the only way this can end "peacefully" is if Russians get totally fed up with Putin and raise some sort of an uprising or that some high ranking Kreml official thinks Putin's done and takes him out...

[Vyn]

There is simply no path forward that results in sunshine and roses. I hope that if one Russian soldier's toe so much as thinks about touching Poland NATO goes after them with everything they have.

Edited to add:

Because if they don't, then all of this stand-offish behavior justified because Ukraine is not part of NATO will suddenly look like nothing more than  pusillanimous hand-wringing.

[Zzzptm]

As things tighten on Putin, I see a pattern: NATO, the USA in particular, is trying to draw the foul. Similar to how the USA was more extensive in its protection of British convoys in the Atlantic and deployed the Pacific Fleet forward to Pearl Harbor after putting an oil embargo on Japan. If Russia makes an overt attack on NATO or the USA, then it results in some harsh consequences for their armed forces - if they were having a hard time getting air superiority in Ukraine to date, imagine the Russian air force after the USAF flies sorties.

That then leads to Iraq-like columns of troops bombed out on the roads back to Russia. Putin could conceivably hold on to power after a debacle like that - Saddam Hussein did so for over a decade after his failed invasion of Kuwait - but it won't be easy. And he won't have the ability to project force beyond his borders except maybe to Syria after this.

So if Russia plays it safe and does not attack any NATO/US assets - and cyberattacks have to be included in this list, eventually - then it still faces its own obvious bogging-down in Ukraine. I'm still boggled that Putin launched an attack during the mud season and not during the winter... or wait until mud season ended... how does the bear digest the porcupine of Ukraine? Sure, take their territory... and then get a guerilla war that matches the intensity of the Chechen conflict, but with millions more involved. What's the endgame for a Russian conquest of Ukraine that wins over their hearts and minds? Don't see that happening and that means a new Afghanistan for Russia on their southwestern border.

[Typhon]

I understand why NATO won’t yet get involved but where does it stop and at what point is enough enough?

It stops when we have a leader here in the west that isn't a gutless brainless boob.  Putin sensed the weakness.

[Zzzptm]

I understand why NATO won’t yet get involved but where does it stop and at what point is enough enough?

It stops when we have a leader here in the west that isn't a gutless brainless boob.  Putin sensed the weakness.

Or that he attacked because quiet undermining of pro-West Ukrainian governments was no longer happening in a Biden administration, remarkably less Putinophile than the Trump administration, and Putin felt the pressure of some kind of ticking clock in his life that forced his hand. He didn't have to invade Belarus because Lukashenko there is very much pro-Putin and pro-Russia - and Lukashenko also welcomes the Russian forces that prop him up in the midst of a population hostile to his regime and Russia. Likewise with Central Asian leaders that fell into line. Both Georgia and Ukraine were pro-West, so he's been hacking at both those nations. The Baltic nations have not had any military incursions, but are frequently targets of cyberattacks launched from Russian IP space.

It's no secret that Trump's relationship with Putin was warm, to the point of questionability. Trump's decisions to meet with Putin without other US staff present were significant breaches of security. Trump himself was hostile to Zelensky and both Trump and Putin worked the angle of Biden's son's relationship with a dodgy Ukrainian energy firm to undermine both Biden and Zelensky. John Bolton, former NSA advisor, has publicly stated that Trump was doing Putin's work in that Trump constantly undermined NATO's credibility and disrupted relationships with America's oldest alliance partners. In 2019, Trump had proposed to his aides he was considering pulling the USA out of NATO and in 2020, Trump pulled 12,000 US troops out of Germany. Trump has even referred to the fall of the Soviet Union as a tragedy, which falls into line with Putin's position.

Russia has a history of bad judgment - massive political miscalculations led to their involvement in both WW1 and WW2 - and then blaming the West for their mistakes. Russia ignores its history and persists in expansionist, pan-Slavic nationalist aggression - which is why all those former Warsaw Pact nations and the Baltics joined NATO as soon as the USSR was gone. They know that Russia makes big mistakes when it stops playing chess and starts listening to its own propaganda and believing it.

Keep in mind that economic responses are real and while they don't involve bombs, they do involve massive damage. Russia does not profit from a high oil price if European markets are closed to it. And, without oil profits, it can't realistically finance its military operations. Petrochemicals are 60% of Russia's exports, and contribute to half the government budget. Without income, it's hyperinflation that looms over Russia, and no nation can win if its banking and finance systems are in disarray. No nation.