AFL 2021

[Zzzptm]

Three word summaries:

Brisbane: We have defense!

Geelong: First score - clanger.

That was rough to watch, Brisbane very much in control in the 1Q and used that to run up the points. Even without the 1Q scores, though, Brisbane still won convincingly. Geelong's got to find answers and get back to form, as they'll have a run of opponents before going up against Melbourne, a game they truly have to win to set themselves up for the finals.

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Three words for the Richmond-St. Kilda debacle

Richmond: Let's play drunk.

St. Kilda: They're drunk? SCORE!

Honestly, Richmond was practically staggering around the field, unable to do much more than score 1s and start fights. I saw the Richmond score of 22 and wondered if the game was still in the first quarter. No, that was the final, and St. Kilda played a normal enough game, so they won.

[Jack the Stripper]

St Kilda have a good recent record against the tigers so I wasn’t surprised too much that they beat them, but I am surprised the way Richmond played though. They were insipid!

What do you think of the fighting in AFL Z and not having a send off rule or players being removed from a game for unsportsmanlike conduct? Few spot fires broke out in the Geelong game the other night as well.

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Yeah, it looks like all they have on that front is "You won't win the Brownlow Medal!" I think in some matches, it's been a little brushfire here and there, but the Richmond game got waaaaaay too punchy. And this is hands-on-throats brawling at times, insane.

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Week 15 wrap-up...

Geelong lost.

On the other matches, Jack and I picked the same team to win in each match except NM v Gold Coast and Bulldogs v West Coast.

We were both wrong about Richmond. Given that Richmond lost, I don't think either of us were displeased with being wrong.

We were both wrong about Collingwood. That side was back to its old self as Fremantle took the win by 12.

We were both right about PA Power beating the Swans. The Swans are in trouble, this much is clear. I don't know where they're headed, except it's a generally downward direction.

We were both right about the Dees beating the Bombers. Melbourne seems to be very good at winning games this year, easy pick to win, really.

We were both wrong about GWS. Hawthorn still had a surprise tucked in its jerseys. Has it got more surprises?

We were both wrong about Carlton, but with it being so close to Adelaide, who could blame us for not picking the winner? On another week, it would have gone the other way.

I thought NM was ready for a win, and they proved their point. Well done, 'Roos. Don't know if they'll keep it up enough to beat the Bulldogs, but they did  enough to beat GC.

And I also called it with Bulldogs winning and WC being a bump in the road - Bulldogs won by 55.

But, in the end, neither of us could pick a majority of the winners. That's an indicator of how much churn there is outside of the top teams. I expect Melbourne, Bulldogs, Brisbane, Power, and Geelong to beat any team below them in rankings. Some teams may have a cachet in their names from their performance last season, but are clearly not who they were last year. Looking at Richmond as I type that. But the top 5 this year are the top five for a good reason: they have the capability of defeating the bottom 13, more often than not. When they face each other, it's a tough pick. And when the bottom 13 are facing each other, it looks like anything goes, as well.

Looking ahead, there isn't a top 5 matchup until Melbourne-Bulldogs in week 20 and then skip two weeks before there's the week 23 matches between Melbourne-Geelong and PA-Bulldogs. That's 8 weeks of matches, and one would expect that translates into 8 expected wins for Brisbane, 7 each for Geelong and Power, and 6 for Melbourne and Bulldogs. I think they'll all finish in the top five, but if any slips up on an banana peel in any of those non-top 5 games, it'll make an opening for one of the other teams to get the edge in rankings.

Sydney and West Coast are next in rankings and aside from playing each other, WC has two more matches with a top 5 team and Sydney has the one. I'll expect WC to finish ahead of Sydney. Barring some late-season meltdown from a top 5 team, these two are fighting it out over 6th and 7th place overall.

Richmond and Fremantle - can they hold on to the last two top half spots? Both have a match against each other coming up and both have 2 matches against top 5 teams in their future. It could go either way, really.

[Jack the Stripper]

Crowd was pulled about 3 hours before the WC v WB match due to a Covid outbreak in WA which really hurt West Coast, they really feed of the energy of their home crowd so the Bulldogs caught a lucky break there. Swans were good in their loss, probably should’ve won that game in the end but for a couple of costly errors in the last 5 minutes. Both the Sydney teams are currently hubbing in Victoria due to the Covid outbreak up there which also probably cost GWS their win against Hawthorn and most likely snuffed out their chances of playing finals as well That game was to be played in Sydney but was moved to Melbourne.

The season really is on a knifes edge at the moment with these Covid outbreaks around the country. South Australia has closed its borders to all States except Victoria and Tasmania which could mean more teams will have to hub in Victoria forgoing their home  ground advantages.

The Swans cheekily requested that their upcoming game against West Coast which was to be played in Sydney be moved to GMHBA stadium in Geelong where West Coast haven’t won since 2005 and the Sydney Swans have a better win/loss ratio than any other visiting team in the last 20 years.

Also expect the fixture to be compressed over the next few weeks Z as the AFL tries to get the H&A season done without having to pause for a few weeks. So we could get 8 weeks of games compressed over 5 weeks. Fun times!

[Zzzptm]

I'd be worried about injuries with stepping up the frequency of play without allowing time to recover. Has a compressed season been done before?

[Jack the Stripper]

Yes last year 30 games were played in 18 days. A lot of teams had to deal with 4 day back ups.

Surprisingly there wasn’t a big injury toll to come out of it.

All 18 teams are currently in Victoria at the moment. SA had some Covid cases today, first for 200 days. As a precaution the AFL flew Adelaide and Port Adelaide out of there.

[Zzzptm]

Literally taking no chances. As in zero.

Well, the games on tap for this week...

GC v Richmond - Richmond gets this one, cold comfort after their huge loss

Geelong v Essendon - Geelong. Will. Win.

Melbourne v GWS - Melbourne has this one.

Adelaide v Brisbane - Lions will roar, one more W for Brisbane.

Fremantle v Carlton - this one is interesting, could go either way. I'll go with Fremantle

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide - I'll take Port Adelaide for the win

Sydney v West Coast - this is where West Coast snaps back and gets a win

Collingwood v St. Kilda - I need to go with the Saints on this one.

Bulldogs v North Melbourne - Sorry, 'Roos, wins are for Bulldogs.

[Jack the Stripper]

Big upset tonight Z. The Tigers look gone...

I’m tipping the same as you except I’m picking Sydney to beat West Coast and Hawthorn to upset Port in Shaun Burgoyne’s 400th game celebration.

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Just saw the match highlights and last 2 minutes of Richmond v GC. Draw a line through Richmond, they look spent.

And I'd love for Hawthorn to win over Power.

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No lines thru Geelong! Slow start in a slippery game, but the Cats came through!

[Jack the Stripper]

The upsets keep coming. GWS beat ladder leaders Melbourne today and replaced Richmond in 8th position. Meanwhile Freo could’ve then replaced GWS in 8th but couldn’t get it done against the Blues tonight.

Huge game looming between Port and Melbourne next week.

[Zzzptm]

No surprises from Brisbane or Port, they both won handily.

I am going to need to see the highlights for GWS v Melbourne, what happened there??? If the Bulldogs win their game, the we'll have a new ladder leader come Monday.

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Sydney didn't just win, they trounced WC! Is it time to draw a line through WC, as well? They dropped their last two games and the win before that was a close one against a declining Richmond...