Global Terrorism Database

[Zzzptm]

https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/

I went there and downloaded the GTD database of events from 1970-2018. It is an Excel spreadsheet. I turned on filtering and froze the top row and got to work.

My first question was if terrorism was on the rise or falling. Globally in that time period, there are 191,464 events documented as terrorist attacks. That's 3907 per year, roughly. To answer this, I did a data analysis trick that has served me well to find the number of items in a column. That is, copy the column twice to another sheet. Remove duplicates from the second column only. Then, in the third column, use the COUNTIF function. It looks like =countif(a2:a191465,b2) which will look at what's in b2 and see how many times it shows up in the range defined in column a. Do a CTRL+D in the third column all the way to the end of where column b's data is and you'll see incidents per year.

In this case, I see that there is an upward trend from 1970 to 1992, then a rather precipitous drop, bottoming out in 1998 to around 1976 levels, then a climb back up to that 1992 peak in 2011, surpassing it in 2012, a massive jump up in 2014, followed by a declining trend that is still double the 1992 peak.

That in and of itself is quite interesting.

Looking at the offenders, there are over 3500 claimants to acts of terror. None, however, come close to the biggest: unknown. 86261 of the 191K are of unknown origin, 45% of the attacks.

Of the attributed offenders, Taliban is at the top with 8727 attacks. ISIL has 6385. Shining Path, a Peruvian terror group, has 4562. Al-Shabaab is 3774 and then FMLN at 3351, NPA at 3054, and then the IRA at 2669. Boko Haram is at number nine with 2665 and then FARC comes it at tenth place with 2490. PKK, ETA, Communist Party of India, and then a generic "Maoists" are the next four places. Most of those terror attacks were within the borders of a particular country in turmoil, or just across the border in a neighboring nation.

Tied for 573rd place are all the groups with 10 attacks in the 49-year span, from "Chicano Radicals" to Supporters of Ex-President Gamsakhurdial to Shutdown G20. At 610th place, it's single digits down to 1878th place with the South Sudan National Movement for Change, which is the last group with more than one attack. The other 1739 only have one attack, including such groups as "Sober and Evil Youth", "Wrath of Olives", and "Hoodie Wearers".

Of the 205 nations with reported incidents, Iraq tops the list with 26057 attacks - given how ISIL was active there along with a massive number of insurgent groups, that makes sense. Pakistan has 14847, Afghanistan (home of the Taliban) 14509, India 12853, Colombia 8515, Philippines 7509, Peru 6108, UK 5335, El Salvador 5320, and Somalia 4674. The UK stands out because of the violence in Northern Ireland - and if Brexit is mismanaged, the UK can look forward to maintaining its placement in the top ten nations in the world by number of terror incidents since 1970.

The rest of the top 20 are Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand, Yemen, Spain, Sri Lanka, United States, Algeria, France, and Egypt. The first 6 have major internal dessent, including low-level civil wars. Algeria and Egypt can be added to that list. The USA and France, however, seem out of place on that list. They bear further investigation.

France first. 2707 attacks in this period. They have peaks in 1979 at 212 and 1996 at 270. Since 1998, numbers have been double digits or less, for a very calm period 2009-2011. 2012 had 66, but less than 50 every year since. About a fourth of the attacks were in Paris proper. 984 were unknown... but I see 862 from Corsican groups. Basques, Armenians, Bretons, right-wing groups, and left-wing groups top out the rest of the big offenders. Muslim groups, including ISIL and Jihadists, come int behind those groups. The Armenian numbers, truth be told, are quite surprising to me. I did not see that coming.

USA has 2926 attacks in this period. By year, 1970 was the biggest with 468. It fell sharply to a low of 58 in 1973, peaked again in 1975-1977, then tapered off to a low of 6 in 2006. It's risen since then, with 66-67 per year 2016-2018. There were 238 different attackers in these years. Unknown claims 555 attacks, or 19%. Anti-abortion extremists are the top attributed group with 232, with left-wing militants next at 169 - makes sense, given the high amount of reported terrorism in the early 1970s. Next is the FALN with 120 - the Puerto Rican independence movement being the USA's version of an ongoing internal territorial dispute, so that explains the terror there. Next are White Supremacists/nationalists with 106, the New World Liberation Front has 86.

I had to look up the NWLF. They were an anti-capitalist group active on the West Coast in the mid-70s, so they go with the peak of activity in that time period. Black Nationalists have 83, Animal Liberation Front 76, Jewish Defense League 74, student Radicals 71, and the Earth Liberation Front at 66.

There are some really wild names of groups on the USA list - like Zebra Killers - and many of them are connected to fringe groups operating out of San Francisco or on the West Coast in general.

Being a US citizen, I wanted to look at the years 2004-2018 in more detail... that will be my next post, I need to put this up to start the thread. And the rule of this thread is simple - get the data to support your point. Make an assertion without supporting data, I might just delete the comment. *Get the data!*

[Zzzptm]

Year by year in the USA from 2004 to 2018...

One note I want to make is that even if there are 0 casualties for an event, the events nevertheless involve bombs, shootings, arson, damage to vehicles or buildings with an intent to kill or maim

2004: 9 attacks. 2 unknown, 1 White supremacist, 1 anti-abortion, 4 Earth Liberation Front (ELF), 1 Animal Liberation Front (ALF). 0 casualties.

2005: 21 attacks. 9 unknown, 4 anti-abortion, 7 ELF, 1 ALF. No casualties.

2006: 6 attacks. 1 anti-abortion, 1 ELF, 2 ALF. No casualties in those. 1 muslim extremist with 9 wounded (man drove Jeep Cherokee into a crowd). 1 anti-Semitic with 1 killed and 5 wounded. The anti-Semitic attack was by Naveed Afzal Haq, a US national, but not affiliated with any group.

2007: 8 attacks. 3 ELF, 1 ALF, 1 unknown, 1 by "The Revolutionary Cells of the Animal Liberation Brigade" and 2 anti-abortion. 0 casualties.

2008: 18 attacks. 3 ALF - 2 wounded, 1 ELF, 8 unknown - one unknown attack had 2 wounded. 1 KKK with 0 casualties. 2 Neo-nazi with 1 wounded. 1 "anti-liberal extremists" with 2 killed and 7 wounded - man opened fire on a Unitarian congregation.

2009: 12 attacks. 2 unknown, one with 5 wounded. That one involved a group of whites stabbing a Hispanic male with the victim's neighbors coming to his aid and injuring the attackers in the resulting fracas. One attack from the Minutemen American Defense League involved an attack on a Hispanic family in which 2 were killed and one wounded. 3 Jihadi-inspired attacks; 1 with 0 casualties, one with 1 killed and 1 wounded, and the third was the Killeen shooting at Fort Hood, with 13 dead and 32 injured. We also see an incel extremist killing 4 and wounding 9. ELF had 1 attack, no casualties. Anti-abortionists had 1 with 1 killed. Anti-semitic had 1 with 1 killed - the shooter in that case was a white supremacist. 1 ALF attack with 0 casualties and 1 claimed by Al-Qaeda with 2 wounded, the so-called "underwear bomber".

2010: 17 attacks. 4 unknown with 1 killed. 1 by "The Justice Department", not affiliated with the USDOJ. They're an animal rights group. 1 from Tehrik-i-Taliban and 4 from Jihadists, 0 casualties from those. ALF had 4, with 0 casualties. Anti-government extremists had 2 attacks, with 3 dead and 17 injured between them. One attacked the Pentagon, the other the IRS.

2011: 10 attacks. 8 unknown with 2 injured. I looked over those unknown attacks and about half were bombs sent to Obama officials and another was done by a white supremacist without formal ties to any group. Another attack from anti-government extremists and 1 from the ALF.

2012: 20 attacks. 4 anti-abortion, 7 anti-Muslim, 2 anti-Semitic, with one of those having an injury. 1 Iraqi extremist and 1 Muslim extremist, no casualties. 1 pro-LGBT with one injury. One from the "Sovereign Citizen" group, with the bomber injuring himself. 1 unknown against an Islamic school, and two white supremacist attacks, one with no casualties, one with 7 dead and 4 injured in the Oak Creek WI attack on a Sikh temple.

2013: 20 attacks. 2 with no casualties from "Veterans United for Non-Religious Memorials". 1 anarchist, 2 anti-abortionist, 1 anti-Muslim, 3 anti-gun control extremists, 1 by "Students for Insurrection", all with 0 casualties. 1 by anti-government extremists at LAX with 4 injured and the attacker killed. 1 by anti-police extremists with 1 dead and 1 injured. 4 unknown, with one at West, Texas when assailants set fire to the fertilizer plant in that town, killing 15 and wounding 151. There are 4 attributed to Muslim extremists, but 3 of them are the Boston Marathon bomber. 3 dead and 132 injured from those incidents.

2014: 29 attacks. Anarcists - 1 attack, 0 casualties. Anti-government extremists 8 attacks with 7 dead and 1 wounded. Anti-muslim 1 attack 0 casualties. Anti police 1 attack 2 killed. Incel extremists 2 attacks, 7 dead and 13 wounded, both related. Jihadis had 5 incidents with 6 dead and 3 injured. "Sovereign Citizen" one attack with 1 killed and 1 wounded. United Aryan Empire had 1 attack with 0 casualties. A White supremacist killed 2 in Overland Park in 2 separate incidents. 7 unknown attacks, 1 injured.

2015: 38 attacks, and I know it goes up from here. 1 anarchist, 1 ALF, 1 right-wing extremist - all with no casualties. Anti-abortionists have 5, one of which had 3 dead and 9 injured. Anti-government extremists matched that casualty number in their one attack. 6 anti-Muslim attacks with 3 dead and 1 wounded. One anti-Sikh with one wounded. Incel extremist had one attack with 10 dead and 7 injured. The Incel extremist was also a white supremacist, but that didn't factor into his violence. Jihadi extremists had 3 attacks with 19 dead and 22 injured, including the San Bernadino shooters. Muslim extremists had 3 attacks, with 6 dead and 2 injured. Sovereign Citizen had one attack with 5 injured. Unknown causes for 13 attacks, one of which had 1 killed and 2 injured. 2 of those unknowns were against Mosques, 9 against Christian churches, and one was against a TSA inspection area. One white supremacist attack with 9 dead - the Charleston shooting.

K = killed W = wounded NC = No Casualties

2016: 67 attacks. 1 anti-abortion, 3 anti-Muslim 0K 1W, 5 anti-police 7K 12W, 3 anti-Semitic 0K 1W, 1 anti-Trump NC, 3 anti-White 6K 12W (Dallas shooter), Black Hebrew Israelites 3 attacks NC Citizens for Constitutional Freedom 1 attack NC, Conspiracy Theorist 1 attack NC, 1 Court Reform NC, 1 Environmentalist NC, 8 Jihadists (including Orlando shooter) with 52 dead and 103 wounded, 1 Muslim extremist 1 K 4 W, 31 Unknown 2K 3W, 3 White Supremacists 0K 5W.

2017: 66 attacks. 1 Anti-arab NC, 4 Anti-government with one attack the 59 dead and 851 wounded in Las Vegas, 4 anti-LGBT 0K 2W, 9 anti-Muslim 2K 2W, 2 anti-police 4K 6W, 1 Anti-Republican 1K 6W, 1 anti-Semitic NC, 1 anti-Trump NC, 3 anti-White 4K 1 W, 2 Environmentalists NC, 5 Jihadists 14K 24W, 3 KKK NC, 1 Neo-Nazi 1K 28W, 1 Pro-LGBT NC, 1 Right-wing 0K 3W, 13 unknown with 4K and 20W - and here I must pause to note the strange case of Devon Arthurs.

Devon Arthurs was a member of the SS Atomwaffen Division, a neo-Nazi group. He converted to Islam and then killed two of his roommates who were also members of the Atomwaffen group that were, in Arthurs' words, planning terrorist attacks. One should note that Arthurs' third roommate was arrested later that week with a car full of ammo and ammonium nitrate, so... yeah... but that's the first I've read of a white supremacist converting to Islam and then killing other white supremacists in order to prevent a terror attack. Devon Arthurs is currently in the Florida State Hospital, as he is not competent to stand trial.

Rounding out 2017 are the White Supremacists with 11 attacks 8K 3W, then the White Rabbit Three Percent Illinois Patriot Freedom Fighters Militia with 2 attacks NC. One of the WR3PIPFFM attacks was anti-Muslim, the other was anti-abortion.

2018: 67 attacks. 1 anti-abortion NC, 3 anti-Muslim 4W, 1 anti-Republican NC, 4 anti-Semitic 11K 7W (all from the Pittsburgh Synagogue shooting), 1 Conspiracy Theorist NC, 1 Incel extremist 3K 5W, 2 Jihadis 1K 2W, 3 Male supremacists 0K 3W, 2 Neo-Nazi 11K 17W, 16 pro-Trump extremists NC, 27 Unknown 0K 5W, 6 white supremacist 19K 19W (includes the Parkland shooting)

There is a definite trend upward in the USA with violence from right-wing groups. The left-wing violence seems to have migrated from environmental causes to pro-LGBT, anti-Police, and anti-Trump, it's about the same in terms of attacks, but with anti-police attacks incurring more casualties. The various right-wing causes since 2016 have definitely had far more casualties from their attacks than any other groups, including Jihadists and other Muslim extremists.