Nuclear War?

[Thelemech]

With the war in Ukraine intensifying and Russia threatening the UK and Nato with Nuclear War, what do you think is going to happen?

Is this a new Cuban Missile crisis occurrence, or are the Russians bluffing? 

After having grown up during the end of the Cold War I can still remember the fear of a nuclear holocaust.

I thought or at least hoped that we were beyond this kind of thing, that the human race's penchant to destroy the planet had passed.
 

[Charger]

Even if Putin would go crazy and order a nuke strike I think he might be taken of the board at that point...it seems that some of the high ranking military leaders there are already bit pissed off with Putin and there might be something going on in the background.

But honestly I don't believe Putin is that stupid to start a nuclear was as it would be a total devastation....there would be no point in that.

But he has to try to save face here as things haven't been going his way at all...so he is acting even more pompous that usual...

[Zzzptm]

I've heard arguments that he's bluffing and comments that he says what he's going to do. He's definitely making himself harder to read with comments like that.

If we go with the "he says what he's going to do" position, then we go to Charger's note that there are people with access to those weapons who don't want to see them used. There's also the case of China, which may not be happy to hear their gas station attendant say that he's planning to burn the place down. So that might be triggering a squeeze play inside of Russia to keep Putin from doing anything... drastic...

It's also possible that he authorizes tactical nuclear launches against military targets in Ukraine. That's a tricky one to navigate, if the targets don't include civilians, at least not directly. It would be an asymmetric matchup in power, but Putin's already regarded as a thug waging an unjust war, so his PR ratings are already close to zero with world leaders. He's got zero to lose there. So if he goes that route, how do other world leaders react to such a limited, military usage of those weapons? Condemn it, yes, embargo more, sure... but respond in kind? Commit to a wider conflict?

[Vyn]

If Putin orders a tactical nuclear strike on a legitimate military target in Ukraine, and his chain of command carries it out, I suspect that NATO will have seen it coming due to changes in troop deployments/aircraft deployments/and other indicators of that kind of action. NATO would probably step in at that point and inform Putin that he either leave off the war immediately or NATO actually steps in with more than just guns and money.

If Putin orders a nuclear strike of any kind in any different scenario, against Ukraine or the UK or France, etc. NATO, armed with the same intelligence about actual impending deployment of nuclear weapons from the "military-only" scenario, would probably launch an assault against Russia immediately, with no words being spoken. Whether that assault includes nuclear weapons of its own, I don't know. I doubt it. But that would depend on so many things I don't (and shouldn't) know it's impossible to say.

But I suspect that NATO's goal will be to eradicate Putin and his top cronies (assuming they haven't all falling out of a building or something), and wherever NATO thinks those folks are, they are going to use whatever force is going to accomplish that goal the fastest.

What a horrible situation.

[Zzzptm]

Thing is, does the Russian army even possess a capability to exploit a tactical nuclear detonation? With the front lines as they are, is there an opportunity for such? I don't think so. The front is not mobile enough. The attack would have to be on a rear area for exploitation to be a valid follow-through, and a rear area means civilians. Ukraine's military infrastructure is slim, so military facilities are likely in close proximity to civilian ones. Again, civilian targeting with nukes is something liable to bring on a deeper response.

I'd imagine also that NATO's already weighed what to do if Putin *does* make use of a nuclear weapon, and it's likely to engage in a broader conflict. Not to cross borders, but definitely to provide land forces in the Ukrainian theater of operations to restore original borders, quite likely taking back Crimea in such a scenario. Putin would then have to decide if he wants this to be a Samson Act and bring everything down - a sort of "If I can't win, neither can anyone else" situation - or if he wants to play a longer game and back away, with his propagandists claiming victory and such.

I don't know if Putin's considering the Chinese angle, though. If not, then his guard may be down for what could be the move that takes him out and installs a Beijing puppet in his place. I really don't think the Chinese want to see their #1 source of cheap oil to go poof.

[Vyn]

After recents events, I'd say that Russia's army doesn't possess the capability to do anything other than act as live-action test targets for Lockheed Martin's new weapons research division.

[Zzzptm]

After recents events, I'd say that Russia's army doesn't possess the capability to do anything other than act as live-action test targets for Lockheed Martin's new weapons research division.

Yeah, they're mired down. The resistance to conscription in Russia is showing cracks in Putin's hold on things.

[Charger]

In Somewhat related news The Nord Stream gaspipeline under the baltic sea has suffered 3 massive leaks caused by underwater explosions.

Russians suspect sabotage and Swedish official geological department has confirmed 3 large quakes at the area which were not natural.


This is quite interesting. Is Russia sabotaging it's own pipeline just to mess with Europe? Or is there some third party faction trying to escalate the tensions between Russia and Europe by doing this?

[Zzzptm]

^ Yes, I just read about the Nord Stream pipeline explosions. If the flow of natural gas is cut or interrupted, that means hard times and high energy prices in Europe this winter. Not good to see happening, at all.

[Vyn]

The Nord Stream pipeline becoming completely non-functional would suit Putin just fine. If Russia's 300,000 fresh bodies can last long enough to keep Ukraine's military occupied into the depths of winter, Germany, France, etc. might just go knocking on Putin's door asking what can be done.

And wouldn't that just be something.

[Vyn]

Seven months and 21 days ago, Thel raised the question to the rest of us about Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons and as can be seen we had a bit of a conversation about it.

So, what has happened in the intervening months with the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Well, Ukraine seems to be getting gradually stronger as a military force, due to the more advanced weapon systems being supplied to them by other countries. At the same time, Russia seems to be getting gradually weaker as a military force. Some lines on the map have moved in Ukraine's favor and they are starting to hit targets hundreds of miles into Russian territory. In an effort to further weaken Russia's ability to mount an effective defense against what is no doubt going to be a massive onslaught by Ukrainian forces.

Online/on TV propaganda from both sides has maintained a steady presence, with current pro-Russian bots pushing the narrative that Russia is actually holding back with their actual elite forces as part of a strategy to lure Ukraine to its doom.

Military and civilian deaths and injuries continue to mount. The 18-40 year old male demographic in Russia is dwindling among those who did not flee Russia when the first round of conscription occurred. Unintended positive consequence for lonely dudes around the world is that there is a growing number of available Russian widows...

Internally, if reports can be believed, Russia is ramping up its punishments for folks who say or do anything even slightly critical of Russia's actions. To me, this is indicative of more citizens of Russia no longer willing to keep their thoughts about the war to themselves because they want it to end. Because Ukraine is stomping a mudhole into Russia's ass. Relatedly, the usual suspects continue to call for peace - by way of Ukraine capitulating and allowing Russia to retain possession of various areas Russia has already conquered.

Ukraine isn't very keen on that. They want peace as well, but it would only happen if Russia gets out of Ukraine. I agree with them on that point. There can be no negotiation with violent aggressors - either Russia gets out or the fighting will continue until they do get out.

To me, what all of this points to is an increase in the odds that Vlad will order some type of nuclear strike at some point. He no doubt realizes that he either wins this thing, or he loses all power. And probably his life. So why wouldn't he make use of all available resources to accomplish the goals of his mission in Ukraine? He literally has EVERYTHING to lose.

But, I also think there is an uptick in the number of people who would be unwilling to follow such an order from Vlad. Some are true believers, for sure, but most are not selfish psychopaths and understand what deploying a nuclear weapon would ultimately mean for Russia.

[Zzzptm]

There's one other way out - the Nero "what an artist the world loses in me!" suicide route. If Putin's Minister of Defense and Chief of Staff refuse a request to launch, then he's on the outs and either surrenders and gets strung up like Mussolini or he tops himself and lets the janitors clean up his mess. I'm guessing he'd prefer death at his own hands than via a bloody-minded mob.

[Charger]

It is getting harder and harder for Russia to save face in this war....their progress has been pitifully slow and their losses have been much greater than they ever would have thought.

I think the question here is, Is Russia willing to just drag out the war for years and years or will they try to end it abruptly with a tactical nuclear strike?

But the thing is no matter what Putin's own views might be he HAS to consider what the rest of the world would do if they did launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine...and I don't think even Putin is readly to put that to test yet.


There was just news that Ukraine had attacked Russia. That is some poor judgement on their part and it does seem that the attack was done by a rogue faction though...but IF Ukraine would carry out a big assault into Russia using western equipment that might be enough for Russia to determine that the west is already at war with them and that might just be enough of an escalation to push them over the edge and towards that little red button.

[Zzzptm]

Question is, where is that borderline? Is it the border before Russia took Crimea and Luzhansk or the border after those grabs?

[Charger]

I understand it's in the north of Kharkiv near Belgorod Russia. So it's north of the true Ukraine / Russia border.