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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Thelemech on September 26, 2022, 06:42:29 AM
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With the war in Ukraine intensifying and Russia threatening the UK and Nato with Nuclear War, what do you think is going to happen?
Is this a new Cuban Missile crisis occurrence, or are the Russians bluffing?
After having grown up during the end of the Cold War I can still remember the fear of a nuclear holocaust.
I thought or at least hoped that we were beyond this kind of thing, that the human race's penchant to destroy the planet had passed.
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Even if Putin would go crazy and order a nuke strike I think he might be taken of the board at that point...it seems that some of the high ranking military leaders there are already bit pissed off with Putin and there might be something going on in the background.
But honestly I don't believe Putin is that stupid to start a nuclear was as it would be a total devastation....there would be no point in that.
But he has to try to save face here as things haven't been going his way at all...so he is acting even more pompous that usual...
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I've heard arguments that he's bluffing and comments that he says what he's going to do. He's definitely making himself harder to read with comments like that.
If we go with the "he says what he's going to do" position, then we go to Charger's note that there are people with access to those weapons who don't want to see them used. There's also the case of China, which may not be happy to hear their gas station attendant say that he's planning to burn the place down. So that might be triggering a squeeze play inside of Russia to keep Putin from doing anything... drastic...
It's also possible that he authorizes tactical nuclear launches against military targets in Ukraine. That's a tricky one to navigate, if the targets don't include civilians, at least not directly. It would be an asymmetric matchup in power, but Putin's already regarded as a thug waging an unjust war, so his PR ratings are already close to zero with world leaders. He's got zero to lose there. So if he goes that route, how do other world leaders react to such a limited, military usage of those weapons? Condemn it, yes, embargo more, sure... but respond in kind? Commit to a wider conflict?
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If Putin orders a tactical nuclear strike on a legitimate military target in Ukraine, and his chain of command carries it out, I suspect that NATO will have seen it coming due to changes in troop deployments/aircraft deployments/and other indicators of that kind of action. NATO would probably step in at that point and inform Putin that he either leave off the war immediately or NATO actually steps in with more than just guns and money.
If Putin orders a nuclear strike of any kind in any different scenario, against Ukraine or the UK or France, etc. NATO, armed with the same intelligence about actual impending deployment of nuclear weapons from the "military-only" scenario, would probably launch an assault against Russia immediately, with no words being spoken. Whether that assault includes nuclear weapons of its own, I don't know. I doubt it. But that would depend on so many things I don't (and shouldn't) know it's impossible to say.
But I suspect that NATO's goal will be to eradicate Putin and his top cronies (assuming they haven't all falling out of a building or something), and wherever NATO thinks those folks are, they are going to use whatever force is going to accomplish that goal the fastest.
What a horrible situation.
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Thing is, does the Russian army even possess a capability to exploit a tactical nuclear detonation? With the front lines as they are, is there an opportunity for such? I don't think so. The front is not mobile enough. The attack would have to be on a rear area for exploitation to be a valid follow-through, and a rear area means civilians. Ukraine's military infrastructure is slim, so military facilities are likely in close proximity to civilian ones. Again, civilian targeting with nukes is something liable to bring on a deeper response.
I'd imagine also that NATO's already weighed what to do if Putin *does* make use of a nuclear weapon, and it's likely to engage in a broader conflict. Not to cross borders, but definitely to provide land forces in the Ukrainian theater of operations to restore original borders, quite likely taking back Crimea in such a scenario. Putin would then have to decide if he wants this to be a Samson Act and bring everything down - a sort of "If I can't win, neither can anyone else" situation - or if he wants to play a longer game and back away, with his propagandists claiming victory and such.
I don't know if Putin's considering the Chinese angle, though. If not, then his guard may be down for what could be the move that takes him out and installs a Beijing puppet in his place. I really don't think the Chinese want to see their #1 source of cheap oil to go poof.
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After recents events, I'd say that Russia's army doesn't possess the capability to do anything other than act as live-action test targets for Lockheed Martin's new weapons research division.
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After recents events, I'd say that Russia's army doesn't possess the capability to do anything other than act as live-action test targets for Lockheed Martin's new weapons research division.
Yeah, they're mired down. The resistance to conscription in Russia is showing cracks in Putin's hold on things.
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In Somewhat related news The Nord Stream gaspipeline under the baltic sea has suffered 3 massive leaks caused by underwater explosions.
Russians suspect sabotage and Swedish official geological department has confirmed 3 large quakes at the area which were not natural.
This is quite interesting. Is Russia sabotaging it's own pipeline just to mess with Europe? Or is there some third party faction trying to escalate the tensions between Russia and Europe by doing this?
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^ Yes, I just read about the Nord Stream pipeline explosions. If the flow of natural gas is cut or interrupted, that means hard times and high energy prices in Europe this winter. Not good to see happening, at all.
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The Nord Stream pipeline becoming completely non-functional would suit Putin just fine. If Russia's 300,000 fresh bodies can last long enough to keep Ukraine's military occupied into the depths of winter, Germany, France, etc. might just go knocking on Putin's door asking what can be done.
And wouldn't that just be something.
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Seven months and 21 days ago, Thel raised the question to the rest of us about Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons and as can be seen we had a bit of a conversation about it.
So, what has happened in the intervening months with the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Well, Ukraine seems to be getting gradually stronger as a military force, due to the more advanced weapon systems being supplied to them by other countries. At the same time, Russia seems to be getting gradually weaker as a military force. Some lines on the map have moved in Ukraine's favor and they are starting to hit targets hundreds of miles into Russian territory. In an effort to further weaken Russia's ability to mount an effective defense against what is no doubt going to be a massive onslaught by Ukrainian forces.
Online/on TV propaganda from both sides has maintained a steady presence, with current pro-Russian bots pushing the narrative that Russia is actually holding back with their actual elite forces as part of a strategy to lure Ukraine to its doom.
Military and civilian deaths and injuries continue to mount. The 18-40 year old male demographic in Russia is dwindling among those who did not flee Russia when the first round of conscription occurred. Unintended positive consequence for lonely dudes around the world is that there is a growing number of available Russian widows...
Internally, if reports can be believed, Russia is ramping up its punishments for folks who say or do anything even slightly critical of Russia's actions. To me, this is indicative of more citizens of Russia no longer willing to keep their thoughts about the war to themselves because they want it to end. Because Ukraine is stomping a mudhole into Russia's ass. Relatedly, the usual suspects continue to call for peace - by way of Ukraine capitulating and allowing Russia to retain possession of various areas Russia has already conquered.
Ukraine isn't very keen on that. They want peace as well, but it would only happen if Russia gets out of Ukraine. I agree with them on that point. There can be no negotiation with violent aggressors - either Russia gets out or the fighting will continue until they do get out.
To me, what all of this points to is an increase in the odds that Vlad will order some type of nuclear strike at some point. He no doubt realizes that he either wins this thing, or he loses all power. And probably his life. So why wouldn't he make use of all available resources to accomplish the goals of his mission in Ukraine? He literally has EVERYTHING to lose.
But, I also think there is an uptick in the number of people who would be unwilling to follow such an order from Vlad. Some are true believers, for sure, but most are not selfish psychopaths and understand what deploying a nuclear weapon would ultimately mean for Russia.
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There's one other way out - the Nero "what an artist the world loses in me!" suicide route. If Putin's Minister of Defense and Chief of Staff refuse a request to launch, then he's on the outs and either surrenders and gets strung up like Mussolini or he tops himself and lets the janitors clean up his mess. I'm guessing he'd prefer death at his own hands than via a bloody-minded mob.
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It is getting harder and harder for Russia to save face in this war....their progress has been pitifully slow and their losses have been much greater than they ever would have thought.
I think the question here is, Is Russia willing to just drag out the war for years and years or will they try to end it abruptly with a tactical nuclear strike?
But the thing is no matter what Putin's own views might be he HAS to consider what the rest of the world would do if they did launch a nuclear strike against Ukraine...and I don't think even Putin is readly to put that to test yet.
There was just news that Ukraine had attacked Russia. That is some poor judgement on their part and it does seem that the attack was done by a rogue faction though...but IF Ukraine would carry out a big assault into Russia using western equipment that might be enough for Russia to determine that the west is already at war with them and that might just be enough of an escalation to push them over the edge and towards that little red button.
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Question is, where is that borderline? Is it the border before Russia took Crimea and Luzhansk or the border after those grabs?
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I understand it's in the north of Kharkiv near Belgorod Russia. So it's north of the true Ukraine / Russia border.
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To be sure, Ukraine's view is that it doesn't survive if it doesn't push the Russian forces completely out, so if the Russians choose to end it all over their being ejected from Crimea and far eastern Ukraine, then so be it. Even a single nuke use would be the end of Putin's regime, I don't think either the West or China would tolerate it.
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Back on February 10th, 2022, when Russia was staging all of that military equipment and personnel on the Ukranian border and kept saying it was just some war games/training...and then shortly thereafter the attack commenced - and Vlad said it was a special military operation that will only take a few days, maybe two weeks at the longest...
...and looking back across the past 15 months at what turned out to be Russia performing a clown show but with real lives and real destruction...in many cases simply wanton destruction and murder and rape and all manner of barbarism...
one thing is certain: When Vladimir Putin wakes up every morning, he has already lost. What a disgusting ambulatory mass of steaming shit he is. Pol Pot would be proud. Stalin is snickering at his ineptness. Idi Amin nods and smiles. The list could go on.
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Speaking of already lost, have y'all seen the news out of Russia today? Apparently, the head of the Wagner Group mercenary army decided he's done with Putin. He took over the Russian southern military command HQ in Rostov and has sent a column north to Moscow, where it's traveled already over half the distance, to Voronezh.
I read that news and thought, "This has happened before when Russia lost wars, in 1905 and 1917. Also 1991, after losing the Cold War."
History Lesson Number One from this is, if you're running Russia, don't start any war you and the people on the other side aren't 100% sure you're going to win.
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Yeah, whether Yevgeny & Wagner can topple Putin is still a tall mountain to climb, but regardless someone is going to fill what is an obviously giant power vacuum. Vlad has never been weaker and the predators smell it. It's clear that Wagner has been planning this for a while.
True about this happening before - when your rule is underpinned by strength and fear, you'd best stay strong. Putin knows this. Scooping up Ukraine would have given him the strength he needed to keep the fear going; but it was an all in deal...
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"Conflicting reports" is now the phrase of the day as Kremlin staff insist Putin is working there while we track a plane belonging to the presidency on the way to St. Petersburg from Moscow... and then the plane disappears from radar tracking.
There are street fights breaking out between faction supporters. This thing goes wider and deeper than I first reckoned. And if Putin does a general mobilization, can he count on people to show up? They all know that the army is undersupplied and that Wagner's fighters are in the best shape, so why go against them? If Putin asks Russians to fight for their country, would they say, "OK, we fight YOU!"... eerily reminiscent of the old Yakov Smirnov routine...
And now the Wagner Group announced it will halt its drive on Moscow to avoid "the risk of spilling blood." So does that mean there are changes underway inside the Kremlin? Also rumors now that Belarus' President is either brokering the deal or has himself fled his capital, who's to know right now...
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Heck of a chaotic situation. No telling what things are going to look like once the dust settles. There could be a LOT more behind these machinations than simply one guy going after top Russian military leaders because of "friendly fire" gone wrong. Maybe this was all a feint, doctored by Wagner and other (as yet) unknown participants? Turn up the heat and see who jumps out of the pot??
My spies in the Kremlin have been incommunicado for decades, so I have no insight beyond speculation :)
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Well, he's going to take himself - and possibly his soldiers - into Belarus and out of conflict with both Russia and Ukraine. And while this may have been the Wagner Group avoiding a lose-lose situation, Putin's weakness is for all to see. He didn't end this - it was an outside broker that brought it to conclusion. If somebody with a stronger position within his own government wanted to do so, he could edge out Putin. The FSB is the most important organization inside Russia right now.
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Putin's weakness is for all to see. He didn't end this - it was an outside broker that brought it to conclusion. If somebody with a stronger position within his own government wanted to do so, he could edge out Putin. The FSB is the most important organization inside Russia right now.
True that. This incident reflects negatively on Putin, and I can't imagine he's not raving around throwing stuff because he has to know it's true, too.
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Well that little "Insurrection" didn't last long! :D
And Putin comes of a little stronger again crushing a "mutiny" with such ease! And people are praising the strong leader once again.
I'm not saying this whole thing was staged but they sure made it look like it was.
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^^^
You might be right, but no regular news outlets are looking at it that way, they are all saying he's a wounded animal and is probably playing for time now.
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Yeah...it's kind of hard for me to trust anything that is being reported about Russia these days...as it's all third hand knowlage at best with a lot of speculation added.
Also it seems that the mainstream media wants to see Putin weak so they tend to report things that way...even if that wouldn't be the case.
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Well, here's what we do know:
1. Wagner Group made a MASSIVE "F U" gesture to Putin by capturing Rostov and driving unopposed to within 120 miles of Moscow.
2. Putin's only public statements in the last few days have been pre-recorded ones. (EDIT: as I typed, he made a statement with zero mention of the mutiny/coup attempt.)
3. Wagner Group stopped their drive on Moscow because of the intervention of a third party - Belarus' leader - and not Putin.
4. Wagner Group gets free tickets to Belarus and keep their heads attached to their necks.
My take on the facts is that if Putin were strong, there would not have been such a move and the Wagner Group would have acquiesced to Putin's demands that they fall under Russian military control.
Winding the clock back even further, if Putin were truly strong, we'd be shaking our heads about the swift Russian occupation of Ukraine and wondering aloud if he was going to be able to pry Turkey out of NATO. Ukraine stood up to Putin and managed to not only stop the Russian Army in its tracks, but then proceed to push it back. That's a massive setback for the Russian Army. It's one thing to fail in an unconventional war in Afghanistan, it's quite another to be beaten in conventional war, which was supposed to be the strength of the Russian Army.
There was zero Russian Army or internal security between Moscow and the advancing mutinous mercenaries until a last-minute scramble put some AFVs on the highways to Moscow and the roads got dug up. (Ironically, I just had Highway Star come up in my playlist! :D ) That's not weakness, that's naked to the world kind of vulnerability. The mercenaries saw and opportunity and took a swing. It seems to have been done in haste, after their leader claimed his troops got hit with a Russian airstrike. I don't think the leader of that group really had an endgame plan when he sent the tanks and troops north.
If Belarus didn't exist as an independent political entity/buffer state, then we'd likely be reading news of increasingly violent chaos in Russia. And that kind of action is bad for everyone, which is why Lukashenko found a way to end it - because Putin couldn't.
We already knew that the Russian effort in Ukraine depended almost entirely on mercenary forces, with Wagner Group being pre-eminent among them. Now that force is off the table. Would we see them again? If I was running a war, I'd say hell no to that proposal. The guy has demonstrated a willingness to escalate command issues straight to the top, even if he doesn't roll tanks, I don't need that kind of interference. Does this impact Russia's ability to hire and retain mercenary groups? I think absolutely so. The situation was so bad, the top mercs mutinied? Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn... Sure, some will think the guy's a prima donna and that they can do business with the Russians, but frontline morale has got to be absolute shit right now. Like the 1917 kind of absolute shit, when the soldiers threatened to kill the officers if they tried to make them attack. It's either there right now or so close to being there, just about any sort of reverse will push it there.
Putin's left with some tough choices...
1. Vodka and a revolver
2. One-way flight to Beijing or Tehran or Minsk or SOMEWHERE
3. ???
That alternative to self-exile or suicide is not easy to figure out. The Wagner Group had people cheering them on - that speaks to the home front morale, and it's not a pretty story at all. And if he can't count on his people or his military to save him, can he count on his close staff and internal security apparatus? Putin knows how Khrushchev got taken down: people around him thought it was time for him to go after a string of failures, including the way he blinked in the Cuban Missile Crisis, so they arranged to have his calls to military commanders go unanswered and his internal security apparatus didn't inform him about what his enemies were up to.
That may be what Putin fears most of all, not an armed uprising he's got a faint hope of winning, but a surety that he's edged out and put on ice, never to have power again. He doesn't have to die to lose, he just has to be under house arrest that's enforced by people who don't hate him, but who have zero desire for him to ever call the shots again.