The Community
General Category => Matters of Life and The Universe => Topic started by: Jack the Stripper on February 25, 2022, 05:00:51 PM
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Well I don’t really know what to say about about what’s happening in Ukraine right now except to say I wish the people of Ukraine all the best in defending their country’s sovereignty and freedoms. The response from Nato and the West has been meek to say the least. Sanctions will not stop Putin overthrowing the Ukrainian government and achieving his goal of restoring Russian power in Ukraine. Sad and troubling times.
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Yeah the Ukraine situation is horrid...
It took me bit off guard actually. I was expecting Russia to just take over the separatist areas and be done with it...never expected a full on assault.
But Putin has sensed the weakness of the west and especially in Biden and acted on it. And you can see Biden not knowing what the hell is going on and struggling to get anything done...sadly kind of the same thing is happening in the EU though....Seems that sporting events have taken a bigger role that politicians in sanctioning Russia! :D
This is all in all very troubling...the biggest thing is IF Russia gets control of Ukraine quickly and with minimal losses that might encourage them to try it again somewhere else...and sadly well...Finland is a possibility.
We so dropped the ball all those years ago by not joining NATO and soon we might pay the price for that leftist pro-Russia stupidity...
Attack here is unlikely but once Russia gets going who the hell knows where they'll end it...
The good old Mutually Assured Destruction isn't working anymore...mainly because the west has gotten weak...and Russia knows it too.
Scary times we're living in now....scary times.
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I'd call it sad or disgusting times:
Germany has made good on its laughable vow to Ukraine to send 5,000 helmets to help them fight the Russians two days into the conflict, but there’s a catch… adding insult to injury, the Eastern European country will have to actually pick up the helmets so German truck drivers won’t be at risk.
The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, called the offer from the Germans’ a joke and asked if they would be sending pillows next. Ukraine is in a full-scale war with Russia, but unlike the United States and other allies, Germany refused to send arms or “lethal aid” to the country so it can actually defend itself. Ukraine has called it a “betrayal of friends.”
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Russia will, at some point, take over Ukraine.
And over time Russia will continue to poke and prod and take whatever it thinks it can take. They've already threatened Sweden and Finland.
It's a terrible situation. That's easy for me to say sitting in my home far removed from it. But I can't think of any more appropriate term than terrible. I'm not a diplomat, or a foreign policy specialist, or a military strategist. I wish this kind of thing would just stop, but I know it won't.
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The action in Ukraine may get Sweden and Finland to fast-track their NATO applications, which I do believe are in the works.
As for the Ukraine proper, I was surprised to see Russians going for Odessa, Kyiv, and Zaporozhe. Those are deep into the parts of Ukraine that are anything *but* Russian-speaking. Driving tanks over that ground and actually getting the people to get in line and behave will prove to be two different things. Unless this is some kind of shakedown that makes Ukraine willing to let sovereign parts slough off in the east and south in exchange for a full withdrawal, this looks a lot like overreaching. And while the price of oil is going up, all it takes is for the USA to drop the Venezuela embargo to make it come right back down again. That, or give a concession to Saudi Arabia (likely in terms of influence in Yemen or Bahrain) and they'll step up production. They like a high oil price, but they also know that what benefits Russia in terms of prices also benefits their regional arch-rivals, Iran. So that's a possibility.
And, if the Russian economy hits a hard patch and is not supported by a high oil price, it's not going to be a fun place to be the boss of, that's for sure. If Putin can't keep handing out enough goodies to pacify everyone, he's vulnerable to an internal power struggle.
Ukraine itself was not part of NATO, so it exists outside that framework. And while NATO has been decried as being weak in this conflict, it needs to be observed that it's also not part of it. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania *are* in NATO, and they're very glad for that. Russian armored vehicles are currently not anywhere near Tallinn, Riga, or Kaunas.
As for responses... they are happening. The Russian Armed Services webpage had an Error 418 page for a while... Error 418 is a joke error page, so it's something of a public hack. While it can't be positively attributed, it does let us know that other things we can't see are being done by people that are no friends of Putin's. The cyberwar aspect of the conflict between the USA and Russia is definitely ratcheting up.
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Just heard US sending $350 million in military assistance to Ukraine and NATO will be providing weapons. This could up tic the cost of Russia taking Ukraine in more ways than one.
And while the price of oil is going up, all it takes is for the USA to drop the Venezuela embargo to make it come right back down again. That, or give a concession to Saudi Arabia
Or, Biden could just reverse all the policies he put in place the first month he was in office. Reopen pipelines, remove drilling restrictions and so forth. We don't need oil brought in from other countries. There is enough here to sustain ourselves, like we were doing just a couple of years ago.
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This could up tic the cost of Russia taking Ukraine in more ways than one.
Russia may already be feeling it. Interesting article from IDNES about the current situation in Ukraine:
https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/zahranicni/prezident-vladimir-putin-podekoval-armade-televize-projev.A220227_102640_zahranicni_vank (https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/zahranicni/prezident-vladimir-putin-podekoval-armade-televize-projev.A220227_102640_zahranicni_vank)
Of course it's in Czech, but Google Translate works if you're determined to read it. What it boils down to is that Putin just broadcast a speech thanking the soldiers for their service in helping protect Donbas (that is how Putin is framing it). Then stating he is going on special alert with his nuclear weapons because "the West" is illegally sanctioning them and being aggressive.
It goes on to say that there are no Russian soldiers in Kiev, that Ukraine still holds Kharkov, and that there is a peace delegation from Russia wanting to negotiate with Ukraine.
The delegation is in Minsk, but Ukraine says it won't go there because Russia is attacking them FROM Belarus.
Haven't caught any of this info yet on other news stations.
Seems Ukraine is hanging in there. More power to them!
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^^^
UK news oulets like the BBC have been reporting that.
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^^^
UK news oulets like the BBC have been reporting that.
Good, that's a bit more confirmation for sure! I'm always wary of -any- news outlet, but the more that report a story, the more credibility it has. Regarding Russia, Czech news is especially tricky because they HATE Russia and always try to paint them in a bad light.
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So much conflicting information coming it's almost impossible to say what is really going on over there.
Ukraine is killing thousands of russians, russians are marching on without any casualities and so on and so on...the truth lies somewhere in between I'd say...both sides have probably suffered losses and ofcourse losses that are about as futile as losses can ever be.
And now ofcourse Putin is threating the use of Nukes...oh yeah...that'll work out well.
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I've got some sources of information that collect large amounts of news and then curate it. The announcement from Putin that his nuclear forces are on high alert did happen. We have to assume now that they are at readiness levels on par with the Cold War: 15-20 minute trigger for at least 1/3rd of the total strategic forces.
Also of note are reports that Ukrainian forces have severed rail lines. Russian supply is heavily dependent on rails, so in a few days, they could be hitting limits of their advances as they have to repair their lines. Moreover, the Russians have not yet gotten air superiority, and that is a telling factor on Russian air combat performance vis a vis Ukraine's Western-supplied air defenses, including fighter jets, missile systems, and drone systems.
Also of note are two major oligarchs, the head of Russia's aluminum producers and the head of Alfa-bank, making public statements that "peace is very important" - a clear signal to Putin that he does not have unquestioned backing from the oligarchs.
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Woke up to read that the Russian Stock Market is closed today due to the financial collapse that seems to have immediately seized up their economy. The ruble is bottomed out and the Russian central bank is hiking the interest rate there from 9.5% to 20%.
When I went to Russia about 10 years ago, it was around 8.5 rubles to the dollar, something like that. Checked today and it's 120 to the dollar. Fourteen-fold price increases on imported goods is brutal. Stocks may be jumpy and volatile on this side of the Dnieper, but it's definitely no doubling of interest rates and collapse of the local currency's parity with foreign currencies. Also, with the Russian banks locked out of SWIFT for the most part, that country is going to hit a credit freeze very soon if not already. That means lines of credit for businesses are shutting down and they can't secure extension loans to keep afloat. Think the collapse of 2008, but with the central bank unable to create effective policies to re-stabilize the economy.
China's in no hurry to take back Taiwan. I don't think that they want to go the military route, even though talking about it always goes down well at home. But seeing the immediacy and severity of the impact in Russia, if I was in the Chinese Politburo, I'd be shaking my head about any kind of military operation. For anyone that would argue the point, I'd bring up the raw material imports from Australia that would be halted, along with the entire export-driven sector of the economy that would shut down. Then I'd say the phrase, "Mao had many good ideas, but Deng was right." Translated, that means reliance on central direction of the economy is a mistake: China has to be integrated in the world economy to grow and prosper.
I'm guessing Putin decided to attack Ukraine because he started to believe his own propaganda.
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The ruble did jump back a bit I think after that... 95.5 to the dollar was the number I think.
They closed the stock market for the whole week. But the damage was done...and I doubt it'll magically start with a massive raise next week either...unless ofcourse Russia pulls off a massive win and take over Ukraine before that...which I tend to doubt a bit.
On another note there's enough of a topic for discussion in a seperate thread so I'll be moving this to Billy's Corner.
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I think the economic sanctions continue full force until the Russians pull back to the status quo antebellum lines, and maybe even get out of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, to boot. And, yes, with their logistics issues and the current mud season, the Russian advance is not going to be fast-moving.
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I agree with the thoughts that the economic problems this invasion is causing Russia are paramount. Now add to that a bit of news I just saw about one of the major oil companies.
Big Oil corporation Shell announced Monday that it would leave its partnership and ventures with Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom. Shell will divest from its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, its 50% stake in the Salym Petroleum Development and its 50% stake in the Gydan energy exploration venture, the corporation announced Monday. The London-based fossil fuel company said it would pull out of its Russian ventures in light of the country’s military invasion and aggression in Ukraine.
If other major oil companies follow along, Putin may have economically ruined his country for at least the next decade.
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If other major oil companies follow along, Putin may have economically ruined his country for at least the next decade.
Decade, at least. There are also reports of Russian units surrendering without a fight. Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/russia-ukraine-conflict-kyiv-us-b2025988.html
Russia’s assault on Kyiv has “stalled” with some units “surrendering without a fight” to Ukrainian troops, according to a senior US defence official.
The official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity on Tuesday, said that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces have come up against several logistical issues as they try to take control of the Ukrainian capital.
Some Russian forces are facing shortages of food and fuel while they are also being challenged by a lack of experience among some troops who never knew they were being sent to combat, the official said.
As a result, the advance on the capital has basically stalled and remains “where it was yesterday” with Mr Putin now said to be “regrouping and rethinking” Russia’s attack.
“You’ve seen it on the ground, where units are surrendering, sometimes without a fight,” the official said.
“There has been in the last six days evidence of a certain risk averse behavior by the Russian military,” the official said, according to CNN.
“You’ve seen it on the ground, where units are surrendering, sometimes without a fight.
“And they’ve got, a lot of these soldiers are conscripts, never been in combat before, some of whom we believe weren’t even told they were going to be in combat. So we’re just seeing evidence of a bit of risk aversion.”
I've heard other reports from other sources (Ukrainians posting on Facebook) that they've encountered Russian soldiers who were lost and hungry and who had ditched their weapons. It all reads very much like reports from the Eastern Front in WW1. Don't know how widespread such events are, but there does seem to be a loss of discipline in the Russian forces that slows down their advance.
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^^^^^^
Hope this information is accurate, but you never know for sure these days.
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Sberbank (a Russian bank) has branches in the Czech Republic. They ran out of money, so the Czech Gov. revoked their licenses to conduct business there. A billion in assets gone in about three days, due to companies and individuals transferring everything out of it. Anybody who still had money in that bank, now has zero money.
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^^^^^^
Hope this information is accurate, but you never know for sure these days.
I hope so as well, and yes, this is part of the fog of war.
Sberbank (a Russian bank) has branches in the Czech Republic. They ran out of money, so the Czech Gov. revoked their licenses to conduct business there. A billion in assets gone in about three days, due to companies and individuals transferring everything out of it. Anybody who still had money in that bank, now has zero money.
When there's going to be a panic, the first one to panic, wins.
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Ian Gillan on Russia's war against Ukraine:
"If speaking out means we shall never see our Russian friends again, then that is a big sacrifice, but nothing compared with never again seeing our Ukrainian friends who are being killed to satisfy the psychopathic ambitions of the Russian leader. I would like to see Russians on the streets in their millions, to show their disgust at the Ukrainian invasion, and I’d like to dream that very quickly, Russia can find some modern leadership that will bring them back into the world as friends. We have so much in common."
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"...I’d like to dream that very quickly, Russia can find some modern leadership that will bring them back into the world as friends."
A dream I share with Mr. Gillan. I'm pretty well confident that it is just a dream, though.
Here's a couple of messages I caught from a Wall Street Journal article about the Russian invasion of Ukraine:
Person A: "It is a bloody nightmare."
Person B: "Actually, it is bloody reality."
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Gillan put things very, very well there.
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Time for NATO to get involved. Putin will stop at nothing to take over Ukraine and cause mass civilian casualties and displace millions of Ukrainians in the process. Which country will be next to get invaded if NATO stands by and does nothing? How the world is just sitting back and watching is beyond me. Time is now to teach Putin a very hard lesson.
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The problem that NATO is facing is the fact that Russia is a nuclear power...and so far Russia has done nothing to directly attack against NATO...so IF NATO gets involved it would be an act of war against Russia and they would be in their right to then fight back...and as poorly as things are going for them in Ukraine right now the fear ofcourse is that Putin would go to extremes and actually use a nuke...it is a strong possiblity.
If NATO would get involved it would most likely lead to World War 3...and Russia would be in the losing end of that battle no doubt unless they'd get support from China which I think is unlikely...so they'd go nuclear without a doubt. That way Putin can atleast safe some face and go out with a glorious bang.
I think that's the reasoning behind NATO not getting involved...and honestly I see the logic and understand it perfectly. So far few hundred Ukrainian civilians have died in the war...if it were to escalate we could be talking about hundreds of thousands maybe millions...and no one wants that.
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I understand why NATO won’t yet get involved but where does it stop and at what point is enough enough? It seems if you’re a big powerful country with a big powerful army, just arm yourself with nukes and invade any smaller country you want and threaten to use your nukes if anyone else gets involved.
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Yeah....that's problematic to say the least...when does it become worth risking world war 3 and potential nuclear holocaust?
Right now I'm thinking that the only way this can end "peacefully" is if Russians get totally fed up with Putin and raise some sort of an uprising or that some high ranking Kreml official thinks Putin's done and takes him out...
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There is simply no path forward that results in sunshine and roses. I hope that if one Russian soldier's toe so much as thinks about touching Poland NATO goes after them with everything they have.
Edited to add:
Because if they don't, then all of this stand-offish behavior justified because Ukraine is not part of NATO will suddenly look like nothing more than pusillanimous hand-wringing.
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As things tighten on Putin, I see a pattern: NATO, the USA in particular, is trying to draw the foul. Similar to how the USA was more extensive in its protection of British convoys in the Atlantic and deployed the Pacific Fleet forward to Pearl Harbor after putting an oil embargo on Japan. If Russia makes an overt attack on NATO or the USA, then it results in some harsh consequences for their armed forces - if they were having a hard time getting air superiority in Ukraine to date, imagine the Russian air force after the USAF flies sorties.
That then leads to Iraq-like columns of troops bombed out on the roads back to Russia. Putin could conceivably hold on to power after a debacle like that - Saddam Hussein did so for over a decade after his failed invasion of Kuwait - but it won't be easy. And he won't have the ability to project force beyond his borders except maybe to Syria after this.
So if Russia plays it safe and does not attack any NATO/US assets - and cyberattacks have to be included in this list, eventually - then it still faces its own obvious bogging-down in Ukraine. I'm still boggled that Putin launched an attack during the mud season and not during the winter... or wait until mud season ended... how does the bear digest the porcupine of Ukraine? Sure, take their territory... and then get a guerilla war that matches the intensity of the Chechen conflict, but with millions more involved. What's the endgame for a Russian conquest of Ukraine that wins over their hearts and minds? Don't see that happening and that means a new Afghanistan for Russia on their southwestern border.
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I understand why NATO won’t yet get involved but where does it stop and at what point is enough enough?
It stops when we have a leader here in the west that isn't a gutless brainless boob. Putin sensed the weakness.
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I understand why NATO won’t yet get involved but where does it stop and at what point is enough enough?
It stops when we have a leader here in the west that isn't a gutless brainless boob. Putin sensed the weakness.
Or that he attacked because quiet undermining of pro-West Ukrainian governments was no longer happening in a Biden administration, remarkably less Putinophile than the Trump administration, and Putin felt the pressure of some kind of ticking clock in his life that forced his hand. He didn't have to invade Belarus because Lukashenko there is very much pro-Putin and pro-Russia - and Lukashenko also welcomes the Russian forces that prop him up in the midst of a population hostile to his regime and Russia. Likewise with Central Asian leaders that fell into line. Both Georgia and Ukraine were pro-West, so he's been hacking at both those nations. The Baltic nations have not had any military incursions, but are frequently targets of cyberattacks launched from Russian IP space.
It's no secret that Trump's relationship with Putin was warm, to the point of questionability. Trump's decisions to meet with Putin without other US staff present were significant breaches of security. Trump himself was hostile to Zelensky and both Trump and Putin worked the angle of Biden's son's relationship with a dodgy Ukrainian energy firm to undermine both Biden and Zelensky. John Bolton, former NSA advisor, has publicly stated that Trump was doing Putin's work in that Trump constantly undermined NATO's credibility and disrupted relationships with America's oldest alliance partners. In 2019, Trump had proposed to his aides he was considering pulling the USA out of NATO and in 2020, Trump pulled 12,000 US troops out of Germany. Trump has even referred to the fall of the Soviet Union as a tragedy, which falls into line with Putin's position.
Russia has a history of bad judgment - massive political miscalculations led to their involvement in both WW1 and WW2 - and then blaming the West for their mistakes. Russia ignores its history and persists in expansionist, pan-Slavic nationalist aggression - which is why all those former Warsaw Pact nations and the Baltics joined NATO as soon as the USSR was gone. They know that Russia makes big mistakes when it stops playing chess and starts listening to its own propaganda and believing it.
Keep in mind that economic responses are real and while they don't involve bombs, they do involve massive damage. Russia does not profit from a high oil price if European markets are closed to it. And, without oil profits, it can't realistically finance its military operations. Petrochemicals are 60% of Russia's exports, and contribute to half the government budget. Without income, it's hyperinflation that looms over Russia, and no nation can win if its banking and finance systems are in disarray. No nation.
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I understand why NATO won’t yet get involved but where does it stop and at what point is enough enough?
It stops when we have a leader here in the west that isn't a gutless brainless boob. Putin sensed the weakness.
Oh for fuck's sake. The world doesn't revolve around whoever the president of the US is.
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I understand why NATO won’t yet get involved but where does it stop and at what point is enough enough?
It stops when we have a leader here in the west that isn't a gutless brainless boob. Putin sensed the weakness.
Oh for fuck's sake. The world doesn't revolve around whoever the president of the US is.
No it doesn't but it does make a difference though. The US has been such a center in world politics for such a long time...sometimes by choice sometimes by accident.
It is clear that Putin did what he did because he did indeed sense weakness in the west...not just in Sleepy Joe but in Europe as well...
However I do think he misjudged things a bit as Europe did manage to stand together on this and put on quite the sanctions list (which ofcourse hurt us a lot too) which drives the economy down in Russia.
BUT he did know that the west would never EVER get involved military wise in the conflict...and of that he was right.
Say what ever you say about Sleepy Biden one thing is for sure he is predictable...and for someone unpredictable like Putin that kind of an opponent is the best kind, because you can always tell what they do, or to be more precise, what they WON'T do...
That was most certainly not the case with Trump. And Putin knew that too and that's why I think he was bit more cautious in his actions during Trump's era.
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Except Putin wasn't "cautious" during Trump's presidency. He was comfortable in Trump's unraveling of long-standing alliances with NATO partners. Trump was getting set to have the US exit NATO in his second term, which would have left Ukraine out to dry.
I'd also argue that predictability is not a bad thing when the overall strategy works whether or not the opponent knows it. Biden will apply economic sanctions and refrain from direct military involvement. OK, but knowing that does nothing to lessen the economic impact of the sanctions. The ones imposed in 2014 over Crimea and Donbass were already harsh on Russia's economy: the current ones hearken back to Soviet-era sanctions, and those are sending the Russian economy to the same place it was in 1991, when the USSR imploded.
The West does not have to be directly involved militarily for the Ukrainian conflict to end with a Russian strategic defeat. The Russian plan was to grab all the major ports, Kharkiv, and Kyiv and then say it's a done deal for them to take whatever concessions they wanted. That was supposed to have been done in 15 days' time, starting right after the Beijing Olympics - more on that, below. Well, it's 15 days in, and the Russian assault on Mariupol is in its final stages, but not yet finished. The Russian attack on Odessa failed outright. Kharkiv and Kyiv are under attack, but not in Russian hands. Russian military operations have been hampered by terrain - it's too damn muddy, resistance - there are too damn many Stinger missiles, and its own morale - they have too damn many conscripts. The rapid offensive never got off the ground and now it's a grinding war of attrition, with no prospects of funding it or ginning up enthusiasm at home.
OK, so the China angle... I have my answer why the tanks didn't roll on frozen ground: China insisted that any Russian attack be done after the Olympics, and that was 24/25 Feb. It was also supposed to be quick, because China depended on Ukrainian grain imports. Now Russia has a mess on its hands, the grain isn't going to China, and China has to resort to alternative payment arrangements to get Russian oil. China itself doesn't have allies - it's always had the "Elder Brother" attitude in dealing with neighbors, who had to be tribute states or trading partners. Whether Russia knows it or not, it has grown increasingly dependent on China over the years, with the 2014 sanctions accelerating that dependency.
With Russia in a mess, it's going to become even more dependent on China. If it tries to go the North Korea route, then it absolutely becomes a Chinese tribute state - and its Far Eastern territories could wind up being sold off/annexed/granted "autonomy" for China to restore its old Qing Dynasty borders. If Putin himself doesn't learn to bow towards Beijing, then it's likely the Chinese apply pressure inside of Russia to get a new leader there who will.
Because of sanctions, Russia is forced to sell oil to China. China is not going to pay the going rate for that oil, but will get it at a discount. Again, China is the Elder Brother in that equation, and deeper sanctions impacts will mean Russia has to concede more and more to China in order to survive under Putin. Now that the attack on Ukraine has stiffened the resolve of Taiwan and the nations that border the South China Sea, if China is looking for a political victory through expansion, the trans-Amur provinces look like the place to get it from a Russia in dire economic circumstances. China benefits as Russia flails away its strength in Ukraine. It could be that China winds up as the winner of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
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Another thought, coming off of what I'm reading about China: Putin's nuclear threats can't be backed up. If he does go nuclear, the West responds, and China picks up the pieces. A nuclear exchange is essentially handing victory to the Chinese outright. It's a bluff, has to be.
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Oh wow, another gem... let me recommend strategypage.com for the avid reader, I've read these authors since back in the days of the old Strategy & Tactics magazine, and they're excellent analysts.
https://strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20220308.aspx has the Chinese analysis I was using in my posts above. Scrolling down to Feb 26, there's a part about the Chinese connection to the Russian army truck debacle in Ukraine: they're using cheaper Chinese knock-off tires, which work great on roads. Not so much off the roads... Chinese spare parts for trucks and radios have also been failing in the weather conditions.
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It is astonishing how many people continue to make excuses for Biden's incompetence. :doh:
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It is astonishing how many people continue to make excuses for Biden's incompetence. :doh:
As astonishing as the people who forget that Trump held up Congressionally-approved $400 million in military aid to Ukraine in 2019 to press Zelensky to announce that he was investigating Biden? And who forget also that Special Ambassador Volker, who lied to protect Trump in the scandal, was at the time and still is a lobbyist for a firm that represented Russian interests in the Nord Stream pipeline until the sanctions hit a few days ago and they had to drop the Gazprom-owned client?
Oh yeah, Trump was hard on Putin all right. :smug: "Bromance" may be a bit strong to describe the relationship, but it's not far off. Pretty much every time they met, Putin had a big ol' ear-to-ear grin like he'd won the lottery or something.
As for incompetence on Biden's part, his administration just approved another $200 million in military assistance for Ukraine, which will include Javelin antitank and Stinger antiaircraft missiles. And for all its bluster, Russia has not dared yet to attack weapon shipments from the West. There's no reason to rush into WW3 if military aid, sanctions, and cheap Chinese spare parts and tires combine to halt Russian aggression. In two weeks, the Russians have dented Ukrainian borders. Lots of bombing and human tragedy, yes. But they've also only made limited progress against what was supposed to be a much weaker foe. By contrast, the Germans in 1941 managed to get all the way from Przemysl to Zhitomir - half of Ukraine - in 2 weeks. And *that* was coupled with major advances across Belarus and into the Baltics. It's the Russian military that wins the prize for incompetence here.
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I think the incompetence of Biden (and EU leaders as well ofcourse) came already before the invasion began. Strong leaders would have stopped it from ever happening. They would have hit Russia hard BEFORE things escalated. That was the weakness Putin saw...the total inability to act...so he went on and acted instead. Ofcourse he totally misjudged the Ukrainians and their will to defend their country...but he was 100% right that the west would not interfere in any military way.
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I don't think that's how the situation works... the rules of engagement are that nations don't take out sanctions until after something sanctionable has happened. Otherwise, the target nation can claim being attacked/wronged and then do what it was going to do anyway. And there hasn't been an inability to act, just a refusal of the West to become militarily entangled. It'll remain a limited war, not a total war.
Reports now that Putin has started to arrest FSB intelligence heads that botched the assessment of Ukrainian politics and capability to resist. I would imagine that investigations will also try to see if money that should have gone for military improvements instead went to yachts and foreign accounts...
Look also at how things have changed since the invasion: there are no more surgical strikes: Russia is hitting residential blocks, refugee columns, hospitals - it's essentially blind to targets of military significance, like its ability to find targets is shut down. Kharkiv was supposed to have fallen within hours of the invasion starting, as it's just across the border. 2 weeks in, it's still well in Ukrainian hands. And should the current bombardments continue, what does a Russian victory mean? That Putin gets to be the king of the desolation? If he wants Ukrainian economic production to be a prize, he can't be indiscriminate in his destruction of the place. And if he doesn't want the population to resist in a decade-long civil war like during and after WW2, then he's going to have to stop his forces from raping and slaughtering civilians. But he's also got to get his army to move more effectively and with what seems to be rigid command structures and people only getting told what they want to hear, that's going to be nearly impossible.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians don't have to keep to the roads, so they can pick off the tanks which are moving in without enough infantry to cover their advance. Russian air assets are grounded due to weather concerns and are flying closer to the ground, making them easier targets. The largest attacks so far have only been a few battalions in coordination - nothing like a front-wide coordinated attack that we expected if there was a general invasion such as this.
I'm remembering how many in the world thought that the numerically superior and supposedly more advanced Russian army and navy would crush the Japanese in the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5. Putin may have made the same blunder as Tsar Nicholas II in expecting sheer numbers to carry the day...
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It is clear that Putin did what he did because he did indeed sense weakness in the west...not just in Sleepy Joe but in Europe as well...
I'll buy that.
A Swede and a Finn got together for drinks one evening.
The Swede grabbed a bottle of booze, the Finn grabbed two glasses and set them on the table.
The Swede poured some booze into the glasses and they both sat down.
They picked up their drinks and the Swede said, "Cheers!".
The Finn said, "Are we going to drink, or jibber-jabber?"
:beerbang:
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"Yesterday marked 21 years since I arrived in Finland."
"Did you celebrate with a beer and a sausage?"
"No. I've become Finnish. I told no one. I sat in the dark in silence and thought about herrings."
"That's the spirit."
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And the funniest joke of all . . .
People still actually believe this to be true. :))
As astonishing as the people who forget that Trump held up Congressionally-approved $400 million in military aid to Ukraine in 2019 to press Zelensky to announce that he was investigating Biden?
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Well, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has this to say about shit actually going on right now:
“The United States will work with our allies to defend every inch of NATO territory, and that means every inch. And if there is a military attack on NATO territory, it would cause the invocation of Article 5, and we would bring the full force of the NATO alliance to bear in responding to it.”
Maybe it's time to dispense with trying to bolster the U.S.'s stance via geopolitical gamesmanship, time to dispense with populist isolationism, and grab the bull of imperialist expansion by the horns and ride that bastard all the way to Moscow.
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@Typhon: It happened. Plenty of documentation around that. Facts are facts, and it's a sobering reality to explore just how much Trump did that directly benefited Putin's plans for Ukraine. Trump always put a smile on that butcher Putin's face.
@Vyn: With what army? And I ask that as a "how would it be done?" type of question. The US deployment in Europe is just at around 100K, recently reinforced by 14K, bringing the US contingent back up to strength from Trump's cuts. If NATO did go into Ukraine, there would be immediate issues of command-chain coordination with Ukrainian forces and the difference in Ukrainian rail gauge from that of the rest of Europe (Ukraine, along with the Baltic states, is still on Russian gauge, a holdover from Tsarist and Communist policies).
While the first one could be remedied in short order with liaisons, one would assume, the second means real logistical issues, supporting troops that far forward. Trains would have to be unloaded at the Polish/Slovak/Romanian border and transferred to Ukrainian-gauge rolling stock. The transfer points themselves would become strategic targets and would necessitate deployment of additional anti-missile defenses. Sea support from Odessa may be better for logistics (transfer of containers to trains already set for Ukrainian gauge rails) but exposes the supply line to Russian naval and air elements in the Black Sea. Not a cakewalk, since Russia deploys hypersonic missiles now. Even if they have a high dud rate, they're going to get some good shots through.
And that's going to bring up the subject of casualties: the USA right now is not united on the case for direct involvement. Until and unless that case gets made, we may not have enough popular support to sustain an extended conventional operation, which could prove to be more disastrous in the long run, geopolitically speaking. Specifically, if the US goes in and the war is unpopular enough to cost the President and pro-war politicians their jobs at the polls, an isolationist faction could very well hand over Ukraine to Putin and dissolve the US participation in NATO, which would leave the region even more exposed than it is now.
Myself, I'm not for direct military engagement, but if it was ordered by the President, I would support and understand his decision.
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In other news, Putin is pressuring Lukashenko to get Belarus involved in attacks on Ukraine. Lukashenko has falsely stated that Ukraine plans to attack Belarus, so that Belarus involvement may be imminent.
Russia is also recruiting mercenaries to go into Ukraine. This has a benefit to Russian propaganda as mercenaries do not count as official Russian soldiers in the tallies of killed-wounded-prisoners of Russian Army personnel. Roughly 16,000 "volunteers" from mercenary groups from the Middle East - likely ones that served in urban combat in Syria - have expressed interest in serving Russia in Ukraine.
The Wagner private military company, owned by one of Putin's close allies, has removed the requirement for previous military experience for hiring and is recruiting for operations in Ukraine. Again, use of mercenaries points to expectation of higher casualties.
While it is known that the Chernobyl reactor is disconnected from the Ukrainian grid, it is not known if it is being maintained (or properly maintained, for that matter) by Belarus. Lukashenko has claimed that it is so, but he is an unreliable source. The IAEA cannot confirm, so we're going to be hoping that the Belarus gang doesn't screw things up.
More confirmation from independent Russian sources that the 5th service of the FSB, the Dep't of Operational Intelligence, is being punished for bad intel. The head of the department and his aides are under house arrest, more may be so interdicted.
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@Vyn: With what army? And I ask that as a "how would it be done?" type of question.
Anything I might posit would simply be idle speculation. Ill-informed idle speculation, at that. However, I suspect that the folks in our military that concern themselves with such things have considered such an eventuality in great detail. It was plausible 75 years ago, and if Putin gives us an excuse to start ramrodding a supply chain into Europe like we did in WWII, it might be plausible once again.
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To that, I'd ask if companies like Skoda, which manufacture rolling stock, and Voestalpine, which manufactures rail lines, are ready to ramp up for the effort needed to rebuild Ukraine's rails as the NATO forces head east? 75 years ago, there was lots more railroad manufacturing going on - can we ramp up fast enough to do the same in this century? Like you said, that's an open question we don't have a ready answer for.
On another matter, another open question is what does the long-term plan look like? There's much uncertainty, but what are the plans for the possible outcomes, and what are the percentage chances of those outcomes happening?
I see:
Deliberate Russian attack on NATO
Accidental Russian attack on NATO
Drawn-out Russian conquest of Ukraine and consequent guerilla war
Russian breakthrough and rapid conquest of Ukraine and consequent guerilla war
Russian forces enmired, Korea-like situation develops with last line of advance forming cease-fire/DMZ line
Russian forces withdraw, status quo antebellum restored
Russian forces withdraw in disarray, Russian government struggles to retain order
Coup forces Putin from power, status quo antebellum restored
Coup forces Putin from power, Russians forced into concessions for peace
Putin escalates with nuclear weapons
The last one has the biggest unknowns attached to it, as well as the highest risks.
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Meanwhile the world awaits on whether China will give Russia the military assistance they’ve requested and are desperately needing or will they renege on their no limits partnership that was announced only last month.
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I'd imagine China would give some, at least as a symbolic gesture: You are the *little* brother, Russia. China is the *elder* brother. And then whatever the Chinese word for "capice?" is after that.
If I was advising China, I'd go with providing the weapons, with the stipulation that there be zero (0) attacks on any Western supply convoys to Ukraine. That does a few things. 1 - limit scope of war: it remains contained to Ukraine. 2 - Russia develops dependence on China for support. 3 - if the West supplies Ukraine, Russia will need more and more Chinese gear just to survive, deepening that dependency as the war continues.
If a long term war takes Ukrainian goods off the table, China will have to source them elsewhere for the duration and the rebuilding years. Doesn't matter who wins, Ukraine is out of the picture for a decade at least. Therefore, use the situation for advantage - give the Russians all the rope they need to hang themselves, because they'll beg for China to cut 'em down.
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News for the 14th: Belarus appointed Russian commanders for its armed forces, likely as a prelude to going into war with Ukraine - not a popular move in Belarus, so Russian officers would stifle discontent, so the theory goes.
Moscow Stock Exchange remains closed this week.
Russia is set to default on its foreign debt. Should have the same impact as Argentina's default - IE non-event, except for the one bank that lent too much. Should not lead to systemic outages, likely containable.
The Russian Navy is blockading Odessa now.
Russian airstrikes have hit Lviv in the Western Ukraine... also, the Ukrainian nuclear company Energoatom reports Russian explosives detonated near Zaporizhzhia reactor. They also report that the power lines to Chernobyl are damaged.
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@Typhon: It happened. Plenty of documentation around that.
Read the transcript of the phone call that started it all. There was no quid pro quo. But if you want to see an example of such a despicable act like that, then here you go.
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Yes, I read it. There is quid pro quo. Saying that there isn't is basically aping the Russian propaganda line. I'm not going to swallow Russian lies. It's clear to many people on the left, center, and right that Trump made it very clear that he was willing to sacrifice US strategic interests for personal political or business gain. Trump was a weak, vacillating, emotionally needy leader and Putin played him like a fiddle.
Consider: the five times Putin met with Trump and sent everyone out except for Putin's interpreter and maybe a buddy of Putin's as well. Why was Trump hiding the information from the meetings from his own staff? Normal protocol is to have US persons present to record and analyze the conversations. That didn't happen, and the contents of those conversations remain secrets between Trump, Putin, and Putin's people. Good security practice is to have a word-for-word record of the conversation and then a memorandum of understanding issued to the participants to be sure that there's no misunderstanding of what was discussed.
Then there was the time Russia seized three Ukrainian vessels. Trump didn't do more than cancel a meeting planned at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, but had an informal meeting with Putin, anyway. US sanctions didn't happen until after public outcry mounted, and then it was some 4 months after the incident.
Trump even *congratulated* Putin on his rigged election victory.
So, no, not gonna bite the Russian line that Trump stronk y Biden veak. Trump was a craven appeaser. Biden is trying to keep global thermonuclear war from happening, that's job one.
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^^^^^^
Just keep on lying. Soon you will be in the same category as the main stream media scum.
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It's not that uncommon for world leaders to meet one on one...it's been done hundreds of times by hundreds of world leaders. But for some reason it just became news worthy only when Trump was in office...
That being said I do think Trump was probably the most Russia friendly potus in a long time. In good and bad.
Trump might not have been strong but by no means is Biden strong either. Biden is a blabbering old geezer who can barely utter a coherent sentence WITH a teleprompter and that's how Putin sees him as well.
But all in all I doubt it matters much who the Potus is for Putin. He does what he does no matter what. When everyone else is too scared to do anything then the bully comes out to play freely...and that's what has happened here.
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Joe Biden is senile and a danger to the free world. He is also very weak as a leader. Trump had his problems but Biden is far worse on a massive scale.
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The point is that the Free World are far more willing to work with Biden because they didn't like Trump.
The Free World doesn't want a Nuclear War until all other options are exhausted. The options being taken at the moment are beginning to hurt the Russian populace but the full effects won't happen overnight.
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Most evidence is showing that Russian logistics has been a victim of corruption - soldiers are having to eat MREs that expired years ago.
One of the items Russia is asking China to supply, in fact, is fresh MRE rations. The USA has issued a warning to China about assisting Russia. On the one hand, China doesn't want to have to take instructions from the USA. On the other hand, the Chinese economy is having real difficulty as the nation continues to grapple with both COVID-19 outbreaks inside of China as well as worldwide supply chain issues that means their goods aren't getting bought and/or paid for due to delivery problems... that means the Chinese can't afford to upset any trade with the rest of the world. Helping Russia could mean mild or worse sanctions imposed on it globally, and mild sanctions alone would damage their economy further. China could go either way, but they're playing a long game, for sure. No need to mess with trade and if Russia exhausts itself in May or 4 years from now, it's the same thing - Russia is exhausted and in a better position for Chinese influence.
Around May, by the way, is when it looks likely for Russia to run out of steam, in terms of finance and internal supplies for key items. With Russia set to have a sovereign default, there's no good ending for Russia.
There's already no good ending for Ukraine: they've been invaded by Russia.
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I found this article to be worth reading. It's slightly dated, but the four scenarios it paints are still roughly possible, more or less.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/four-ways-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end/
There's also a possibility that China offers no help or minimal help to Russia because it plans to head north into Siberia. Loads of resources there. Chinese propaganda claims Siberia and that Russian presence there is due to unjust treaties. If China doesn't go for Taiwan, why not take on a Russia that has shown gross errors and military weakness in Ukraine? The Russian move was supposed to have been a page out of NATO's Cold War Nightmare scenarios: rapid armored envelopments, precision strikes, paratroop assaults and mechanized combined arms groups sweeping a path through defenses that, at best, are speed bumps for the Russian conquest. Kyiv and Kharkiv, close to the border, were supposed to be overrun inside of 24 hours. That did not happen. Hapless Ukrainians giving up all hope and surrendering did not happen.
The Ukrainians driving stolen Russian tanks are real enough - and the other tanks that are stuck in mud or smoldering wrecks holding up military columns are just as real. The Russian military is humiliated at the hands of a smaller army they thought they'd just roll over. The problem in Ukraine is that the rest of the world is not preoccupied with Hitler having just invaded Poland, so they can send lots of military aid, which didn't happen as much for Finland in the Winter War of 1939-40. Another difference is that Western aid can arrive in Ukraine through Poland, Slovakia, and Romania - unlike how Allied aid could not reach Finland through then-neutral Norway and Sweden. That puts another idea on the table: what if NATO nations not only don't want to get involved, but want Ukraine to win or at least stalemate Russia on its own? Think of this: if Russia is defeated with NATO forces, it will make plenty of excuses that act as teflon for Putin. It's another Great Patriotic War, yadda yadda. But if Russia is defeated by *just* Ukrainians, regardless of how much aid they get, Putin isn't just a butcher, he's a butcher that cut off his own hand - an incompetent blunderer.
There's also a global arms business angle: there are both large businesses and entrepreneurs eager to send aid to Ukraine as a form of advertising. Russia, meanwhile, is losing arms contracts not only because of the sanctions but because of the crappy performance of their weapons in Ukraine. Israel, China, and US firms are picking up the Russian customers.
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I find it very strange that a country with such rich military support as Russia is running out of supplies and gear...where the hell has all that money gone?
They've spent billions of dollars on their military...
If some have pocketed the money there should be some rich motherfuckers in the military....which might be very possible. I think some evidence of money lost has already surfaced (ofcourse shot down by the russian propaganda machine quickly) on some news outlets.
I think Russia's military might has been grately exaggerated over the years and corruption has been going rampant and now they are paying the price for it...I think Putin himself had no or very little idea of the real state of their armed forces....that's what I'm thinking now anyways...
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The point is that the Free World are far more willing to work with Biden because they didn't like Trump.
Only the woke left didn’t like him and only because he didn’t act like a conventional presidential or didn’t act presidential enough for lack of a better word. Biden seems just as much as if not more of an embarrassment to the U.S the way he is though and Harris might be the dumbest VP in history.
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If some have pocketed the money there should be some rich motherfuckers in the military....which might be very possible. I think some evidence of money lost has already surfaced (ofcourse shot down by the russian propaganda machine quickly) on some news outlets.
I think Russia's military might has been grately exaggerated over the years and corruption has been going rampant and now they are paying the price for it...I think Putin himself had no or very little idea of the real state of their armed forces....that's what I'm thinking now anyways...
That's pretty much how I understand things regarding Russia's military.
Putin: "Here's a billion dollars to upgrade our military this year"
General A: "Yes, sir!" (pockets 250 million)
General A to Procurement Guy: "Here's 750 million dollars to upgrade our military this year"
Procurement Guy: "Yes, sir!" (pockets 250 million)
Procurement Guy to Sub-Military Commander: "Here's 500 million dollars to upgrade our military this year"
etc.
By the time it gets to the people doing the purchasing, five dollars was available for upgrading their military this year.
Putin to General A: "How's our military looking after you spent all that money?"
General A: "World's best, sir!"
Because you don't tell the guy who can turn you into a dismembered corpse in a suitcase that the thing he wanted done didn't get done because everyone is as corrupt as he is.
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Latest reports from Ukraine...
Ukrainians killed the 4th Russian general, Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev, commander of the 150th Motorized Rifle division.
Russians are cremating bodies of soldiers from Donetsk People's Republic. That's something done so as to avoid paying out death benefits and to mask the number of casualties.
Ukrainian forces have started a counter-offensive northwest of Kyiv.
Russian advances on Kyiv and Kharkiv remain stalled.
A Russian invasion force is making its way towards Odessa, waiting for minesweepers to finish clearing channels for them.
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A very solid analysis of Russian military performance in Ukraine, including references to Syrian actions, Ukrainian tactics, and Russian responses to the failure of the plans for quick conquest.
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A very solid analysis of Russian military performance in Ukraine, including references to Syrian actions, Ukrainian tactics, and Russian responses to the failure of the plans for quick conquest.
Link, or it didn't happen!
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Whoops!
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20220318.aspx
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Another article discussing some facts versus fiction regarding this nasty business:
https://spectator.org/whats-really-happening-in-ukraine/?fbclid=IwAR0bEwbNT9m-VKTaIslHlBV9lj8L-0_ATAz0_wST31291dTbzSxvh_G7qQM (https://spectator.org/whats-really-happening-in-ukraine/?fbclid=IwAR0bEwbNT9m-VKTaIslHlBV9lj8L-0_ATAz0_wST31291dTbzSxvh_G7qQM)
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^ Good article that begs the question of sooner rather than later. But if Russia's army continues to fall apart before our eyes, is there a chance that it's a never?
The area under Russian control today is scarcely different from the area under control last week. Given that the attack was actually led by their *best* troops and the second/third echelon forces doing border guard duty are much worse off in terms of equipment and supplies, this is not an army that's ready for force projection beyond the limited operations against much smaller and less-treatied-up nations on Russia's periphery.
But I'd like to see perhaps Georgia brought into NATO. That would let Putin know exactly where the West is willing to stand: right on his front porch, staring through the peephole. Getting Sweden and Finland in also sends the message that we acknowledge the Russian threat, and we are united against it. As soon as the current war is over, Ukraine should be brought into NATO.
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Some videos have been posted of former military personnel (from US, Canada, England) who volunteered to go over and fight with the Ukrainians. They are claiming that the Ukraine army is forcing them to fight without proper weapons, placing them in high target positions, and not allowing them to leave if they want to. Perhaps the Ukraine military aren't a bunch of angels either.
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Some videos have been posted of former military personnel (from US, Canada, England) who volunteered to go over and fight with the Ukrainians. They are claiming that the Ukraine army is forcing them to fight without proper weapons, placing them in high target positions, and not allowing them to leave if they want to.
They wanted to feel like saviors, and I guess they are being treated like The Savior was...
Perhaps the Ukraine military aren't a bunch of angels either.
I'm sure they aren't angels. But, who says they are? War is hell.
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Some more info on volunteering for Ukraine from Sandboxx, a US active duty/veterans' community: https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/what-foreign-volunteers-need-to-know-to-fight-for-ukraine/
The part about "forced to fight" vs a Times of Israel article that cites lack of weaponry, but overall high morale: https://www.timesofisrael.com/many-of-ukraines-foreign-fighters-have-no-guns-or-training-but-are-ready-to-help/
It's definitely in Russian interests to promote Ukrainian problems, as it is in pro-Ukrainian interests to report generally good things. So I like to find guys like this reporter: https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/stalled-russian-troops-beg-for-food/ Independent, on the ground, interesting story... and the Russians are the ones with the biggest under-equipment and bad morale story, overall. Like Vyn said, war is hell. And the Sandboxx article does point out that the Ukrainian gov't recommended bringing one's own armor, weapons, and uniform - though the site also recommended against using a US service uniform for conflict in Ukraine.
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Some videos have been posted of former military personnel (from US, Canada, England) who volunteered to go over and fight with the Ukrainians. They are claiming that the Ukraine army is forcing them to fight without proper weapons, placing them in high target positions, and not allowing them to leave if they want to.
They wanted to feel like saviors, and I guess they are being treated like The Savior was...
Perhaps the Ukraine military aren't a bunch of angels either.
I'm sure they aren't angels. But, who says they are? War is hell.
Sure, war is hell, but you don't treat your allies like enemies.
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Sure, war is hell, but you don't treat your allies like enemies.
Ha! That's true.
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Not surprised Dore would go with that angle. He's been a Kremlin supporter for years. What you got there on the YouTube is some pro-Russian propaganda.
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How anyone can support Putin’s Russia is beyond me.
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How anyone can support Putin’s Russia is beyond me.
Quislings, that's the word for them.
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Claiming someone is supporting Putin just because they are criticizing some behavior in Ukrainian's military is absurd. Make no mistake about it, there are some pretty evil people on both sides of that fight. I've heard that one of Ukraine units wear uniforms adorned with Nazi symbols.
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Ukraine units wear uniforms adorned with Nazi symbols.
This one in particular is one the Russian propagandists hit home on. In the 2014 action, there was an Azov Battalion of ad-hoc fighters, an independent militia, that formed to repel Russians. Azov Brigade made no secret of their neo-Nazi affiliations. However, that group has dissipated and far-right groups in Ukraine won less than 2% of seats in recent elections. No active duty Ukrainian units use a Nazi symbol as part of their insignia. That several individuals put fascist symbols like the black sun on their uniforms is an individual act. Russia's use of the "Z" symbol to promote Putin's line certainly falls into place as a state-approved and state-promoted fascist symbol.
As for Dore, he's been promoting Putin since before this, so there's more than just his take on Ukraine's military to reveal him as a willing repeater of Russian propaganda. As for others that may be out there, it's pretty easy to sift out the commentators that may be calling attention to legitimate equipment shortages, the logistical issues contributing to the shortages, and the impact on performance and morale and those who bring up problems specifically to undermine faith in/ support of Ukraine. Putin doesn't have to get the world to support his views, he just has to get people to question those opposed to his views.
Russian disinformation campaigns go back to Stalin's day, with a short break between Gorbachev and Putin, when Yeltsin was leading Russia. Russia's made frequent claims about US biological warfare research and weapon use, most effectively so during the Korean War. When the USSR was trying to extend influence in Africa, it started the lie that the USA had created AIDS to depopulate Africa. Again, it didn't have to make people love Russia, just distrust Russia's enemies.
Russia also likes to use the "everyone else is doing it, so it's OK if we do it" argument. Variants of course include the arguments of "there are sinners on both sides", "nobody's perfect", "you guys did it first (or worse)". True or not, none of them provide legitimate justifications for Russian actions. We don't have an international system where every nation that wants to gets to take turns invading other nations. Bad people on both sides does not justify offensive war. Nor does it justify bombing of schools, hospitals, refugee convoys, or nuclear power facilities.
Right now, it's the Russian army that is bombing civilian targets, raping civilians, looting civilians, and killing civilians. Right now, it is the Russian army that is engaged in an offensive war completely unnecessary for its national survival. Right now, it's Putin and his circle that are engaged in war crimes. And that means, right now, the most dangerous propaganda to trick one's self into believing is Russian propaganda - they have the most at stake, so they have the biggest lies to get others to swallow. Of course, it's a little at a time, but it all adds up.
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In other news, Russia's stock exchange re-opened, but only to trade Russian government bonds.
US Army estimates of Russian war dead: 3-10,000. Ukrainian estimate: ~14,000
We do see evidences of Russians trying to conceal/minimize their number of war dead, with corpse trucks heading into Belarus and then corpse trains going from Belarus to Russia. Belarus hospitals near the border are reportedly full of Russian wounded.
Although China has protested that condemning Russia's invasion solves nothing - and has yet to issue a condemnation of the invasion - it is also not shipping military aid to Russia.
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I'm sure lots of neo nazis and other extremist groups in Ukraine are having a field day now. Pretty much a dream come true scenario for them...getting to kill people at will without any fear of repercussions.
Same for Russian side ofcourse.
That's another horrible side of war. The truly nutty people get to fully express themselves.
As far as the death toll estimates I'd be very very weary about the Ukrainian numbers...those are inflated to the max....and ofcourse equally weary about the Russian estimates as those would be cut down to minimum.
I doubt there's any factual data about those numbers available...But I'm sure we're talking thousands on each side.
Same goes for the estimated civilian casualties...those numbers are probably pretty inflated too but that really doesn't matter as every civilian victim in a war as pointless as this is totally futile.
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Some great points, Charger.
Wars are always opportunities for individuals to settle whatever scores they imagine with murders. Family feuds, village conflicts, old grudges, ethnic friction - all of these flare up under the shadow of wars.
Death tolls - always a matter of contention. Always. If you thought counting COVID was tricky, war casualties are never better than an educated, qualified guess. Pressures from involved parties try to move the estimates up or down, depending on what suits their position. Scholars, years from now, will make or break reputations on following this or that method of calculating casualties. There will be official records of the dead, injured, and missing that are close to the truth... unless the power in charge of those records prefers the truth not be known.
In this case, Russia is infamous for historically fudging its numbers. Their official death toll of The Great Patriotic War is considered too low. It's a massive number, for sure, but it's the lowest Stalin could go without straining credibility with a devastated people. But even today, the government wants to present a number that shows a high price paid in the sacrifice and not the even higher price paid for incompetence and miscalculations at the highest level. China follows a similar method in counting its casualties - pretty much a number that looks right to go with a story that they fought a hard fight, but the leaders didn't make mistakes that cost even more lives. (And yes, this also extends to how China counts COVID, which is why their numbers are pretty much good only for measuring their leadership's confidence in how they're handling the situation.)
Civilian costs are even harder to figure. War can increase the impact of natural risks like disease, accidents, and malnutrition. Most calculations have to fall back on "excess death" figures, and those miss out on non-lethal impacts like injury, property loss, and rape.
I'd consider US Army estimates to be reliable for historical estimation purposes. The range of 4-10,000 dead for a force estimated to be around 200,000 involved in the invasion translates to 2-5% of the estimated total. If that's true, and the casualties are predominantly among first-echelon troops that are engaged in the closest combat with Ukrainian forces, then one would expect a stalled offensive with the elite forces blunted like that... which is what we do see, so I can accept that range as likely close to the actual number.
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Right now, . . . Right now, . . . Right now, . . .
Sure everyone wants to talk about what's happening now, who's dying now, who's the aggressor now. But for the last 5 plus years that Ukraine has been fighting and bombing its Donbas area, nobody was talking about the number of people who were killed or who the aggressor was. Government and media let us know strictly what they want us to know so it suits their needs.
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Sure everyone wants to talk about what's happening now, who's dying now, who's the aggressor now. But for the last 5 plus years that Ukraine has been fighting and bombing its Donbas area, nobody was talking about the number of people who were killed or who the aggressor was. Government and media let us know strictly what they want us to know so it suits their needs.
The aggressor was a pro-Russia group in Ukraine backed with arms and intelligence by Russia who seized Ukrainian government offices and thereby kicked things off.
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Right now, . . . Right now, . . . Right now, . . .
Sure everyone wants to talk about what's happening now, who's dying now, who's the aggressor now. But for the last 5 plus years that Ukraine has been fighting and bombing its Donbas area, nobody was talking about the number of people who were killed or who the aggressor was. Government and media let us know strictly what they want us to know so it suits their needs.
You mean the area that Russia invaded and occupied in 2014? The Donbas is not a breakaway ethnic region. The Russians living there were a pretext for Putin's invasion, there wasn't a widespread separatist movement. In 1991, 83.9% of voters in Donetsk Oblast and 83.6% in Luhansk Oblast supported independence from the Soviet Union. Turnout was 76.7% in Donetsk Oblast and 80.7% in Luhansk Oblast. Since Putin took office, Russia has been working the "oppressed Russians" angle to its advantage. True, in 2010, the region had strong support for the pro-Russian president Yanukovych, but politically the region pressed for federalization of the Ukrainian unitary state, not secession and certainly not being joined to the Moscow regime. Their biggest beef with the unitary state was that authority had been shifted from Moscow to Kiev, not that they were inside a largely Ukrainian-speaking nation.
When the Donetsk and Luhansk pro-Russian groups took power in 2014, 72% of the people in the regions disapproved and only 12% wanted union with Russia; 38% wanted federalization with Ukraine and 41% wanted a unitary state with Ukraine with decentralized power, and the remainder were in favor of being independent of both Russia and Ukraine.
Russia did a full-on invasion in 2014 when it looked like Ukraine was close to attaining a military solution to the rump states created by Russian separatists with large degrees of Russian aid. A 2019 survey returned results that 71% of the population in the Donbas opposed the Russian occupation, with only 9% accepting it.
There was talk about the aggressor in Donbas: Russia. Russia is responsible for that conflict, for stoking the unrest that formed a cover for their intervention, and the woes that resulted.
You also made a mention of Ukrainian soldiers with neo-Nazi symbols but neglected to cite the ties of the leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway regions to far-right fascist and neo-Nazi ideology. The leaders have close ties with the Russian Nationalist Uniont (RNU), a Russian neo-Nazi group that was founded in 1990. The RNU is itself tied with the Russian Orthodox Army, a religious ultranationalist group. In the Donetsk army, there are three battalions that incorporate neo-Nazi symbols into their official insignia. While the Ukrainians sport the symbols unofficially, their opponents use them officially. While I'm worried about unofficial use of neo-Nazi symbols, I'm dead-set against any outfit that makes official common cause with such elements.
The neo-Nazism in the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine has led to a general exodus of Jews, Romani, and LGBT persons.
Again, the line that Ukraine is somehow the aggressor and oppressor in Eastern Ukraine is pure Russian propaganda, used to justify their invasion of the region. Pointing at a few far-right persons on the defenders' side is done to divert attention from the neo-Nazis that have flocked to the banners of the aggressors. Trying to use a historical "they did it too!" argument is to distract from the massive scale of the atrocities being committed by the Russian army and to suggest that there is some kind of reciprocity in play. There's nothing that happened in the past that even begins to compare to what is happening right now in terms of scope and scale.
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Latest news regarding Russian and Ukrainian claims of casualties:
According to pro-Kremlin news outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda, 9,861 Russian soldiers were killed and an additional 16,153 were wounded in Ukraine. Shortly after the publication of the article, the contents were changed to edit out the numbers. The Russian Ministry of Defense last reported the death toll at 498 on March 2, 2022. The number has not been updated since. According to Ukrainian Armed Forces, more than 14,000 Russian soldiers have died since the beginning of the war. The latest US assessments estimate the number to be between 3,000 and 10,000.
Russia reportedly continues to forcibly evacuate Ukrainians to Russia. On March 21, 2022, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Russian forces forcibly deported 2,389 children from Donetsk and Luhansk regions to Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on March 20, 2022, that 16,434 Ukrainians, including 2,389 children, were evacuated to Russia. Reports from the last couple of days claimed that Russia is forcibly evacuating people from Mariupol into Russia. The Russian government evacuates Ukrainians to Russia in an effort to create an illusion of humanitarian aid.
The KP numbers prior to the wipe dovetail with the high end of the US range, so I'll go with 10K based on that. While both Russia and Ukraine agree on the 2389 children number, the verb differs: evacuated vs forcibly deported. Given Russia's human rights record - mostly abusive - I'll go with "forcibly deported" here.
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I think the proper term would probably be forcibly removed or evacuated...can't really be deported as they were taken TO Russia not kicked FROM Russia. ;)
I seriously doubt almost 10000 Russians could have possibly died...it just doesn't seem right. I'm assuming the estimate might come from destroyed tanks and vehicles but the truth is the Russian soldiers have been abandoning a lot of gear and the Ukrainians have been destroying empty vehicles too. So the errors accumulate rather fast if they're counting full personel on each destroyed vehicle vs abandoned vehicles.
The fighting morale is reported to be very low in the Russian forces which has led to abandoned positions and vehicles...and the last thing Russia would ever want to admit is that their forces aren't willing to fight for their supreme leader.
It might be in the thousands but can't possibly be in the 10000 range.
Eventhough it is ofcourse always bit easier to defend than it is to attack that would still mean atleast double that for the Ukraine side based on the balance of power and the bombardments done by the Russians and I do not see such numbers anywhere.
So I'm willing to believe somewhere between 2000-5000 losses on both sides at the moment.
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Reports of Russians heading to the rear with frostbite - total deaths could be worked higher due to non-combat factors.
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Yes it is a possibility but I find that hard to believe in this day and age as well...frost bites yes but dying from them...that happened back in the 1st and 2nd WW but nowadays....Possible I suppose but highly unlikely with modern medicine and modern transportation.
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Yes it is a possibility but I find that hard to believe in this day and age as well...frost bites yes but dying from them...that happened back in the 1st and 2nd WW but nowadays....Possible I suppose but highly unlikely with modern medicine and modern transportation.
Russian medicine and transport at the front is a big question mark right now. If the traffic jams aren't cleared, exposure can be a real issue.
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It is practically impossible to confirm what each side claims in this entire conflict. It's tough enough to figure out what is true or false in my own country, let alone from half way around the world.
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While the exact truth will escape any analyst or historian, there are a number of ways to arrive at decent estimates and approximations. It's possible to gather evidence and extrapolate from it.
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In latest news, Ukraine has begun counteroffensives and has regained ground outside Kyiv and is making progress towards Mykolaiv and Kherson.
Anatoly Chubais, one of Putin's ministers, has resigned his post and left Russia.
Russia's attack on Odessa hasn't materialized as expected - supply issues most likely hampering the move.
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On the speculative side of things, Kremlin watchers are noting that Russia's Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, who both used to have frequent appearances in the media, have not been seen publicly since 11 March. The two explanations considered are that 1) War not going so good, these guys not as popular, keep them out of sight for now, but they'll be back, or; 2) War not going so good, they're in deep trouble like the FSB guys that fudged their intel, they're not returning to the public sphere.
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Relatedly, recent articles from several news outlets indicate that Finland is leaning towards joining NATO.
I can hardly wait until they do; I'll finally be able to show Charger the secret handshake!
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That would mean we could also legally send him antitank missiles, am I right?
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Things are looking like that yes.
From a defensive point of view NATO is a great thing...but we are a poor country with a shit load of debt already...adding the yearly costs of joining NATO is bit scary...
That being said though I would have liked if we'd joined a long long time ago...when we could have done so under our own terms.
And yes if you feel like you'd like to send me a Javelin or two I wouldn't turn them down.
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I'll see what the sales on eBay look like. :smug:
Hmm... looks like most of what is available is in the "scale model" category... disappointing...
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Well shit...I have gnarly feeling those won't work...even against russian tanks...
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Indeed. Unless the Russians have depleted their normal-sized tank forces and are also using scale models.
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Just read this today.
"Finland is just weeks away from submitting an application to join NATO despite Russian warnings that it would secure ‘the destruction of their country’, a former Prime Minister of the country said today.
The Nordic country, which has a long border with Russia and was invaded by the Red Army in 1939, has never been a member of the Cold War defense alliance, preferring instead to organize its own protection.
But since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, opinion polls commissioned by Finnish media outlets have shown a swift U-turn in public opinion with the majority now favoring joining."
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And Finnish membership could spur Sweden into joining in, as well: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/will-finland-and-sweden-join-nato-now/
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Not fully accurate. Finland is contemplating applying for a membership but nothing has been set in motion yet and there has been no word of anything official.
But I am confident we will indeed apply in the next few months but nothing is official yet....sadly our current government is known for dragging their little feet where ever they go.
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November 12th, 2022: Grandmother kneels before grandson who's been fighting for Kherson liberation: (it does have sound, but just the unabashed wailing of a woman overcome with relief. Holy shit.)
https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1591477593202692096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1591477593202692096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)
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I truly hope that the Russian collapse in Ukraine shows to world leaders the futility of offensive war. All that the Russians accomplished was death, destruction, disruption of the global economy, and misery. Such a wretched thing Putin ordered.